Offshore drilling finally

Some quick notes on propane and natural gas as motor fuels, and a few thoughts on how to really solve our energy problems:

1) Given the service life of a car and the state of the economy (unlikely to change for the better) it would take 10 to 15 (perhaps even 20) years to retrofit/replace the majority of the fleet with CNG fueled cars. Not many people can cough up $5000 plus to retrofit a car and buy a compressor station, let alone buy a new car right now!

2) CNG compressor stations are a lot more complicated than your home air compressor. They cost 20x to 30x more, work far harder and wear out faster.

3) Natural gas is dirt cheap right now because the shale plays have been highly productive. Add in the demand of the transportation fleet and that advantage disappears. To look at this honestly, you'd have to add higher home heating costs (probably doubled at least) to the cost of fueling your car with CNG.

4) CNG is less dense with energy than gasoline or diesel. Hence, lower fuel mileage. This isn't a big problem with passenger cars, but when it comes to trucking, heavy equipment and locomotives CNG simply isn't viable.

5) It would probably make more sense to pursue plug-in hybrids. While the power grid is stretched to the limit during the day, there's a lot of excess capacity at night for recharging - no new infrastructure needed. Plug-in hybrids can easily get 100 mpg in typical commuting around town, and a 220 outlet in the garage is one hell of a lot cheaper than a compressor station. (Doesn't wear out, either.) Get the government out of the way and we could be driving 150 mpg plug-in hybrid diesels in less than 5 years.

6) Natural gas is the raw material for pharmaceuticals, fertilizers and a host of other products. With a global population approaching 7 billion, it's really insane to burn up that resource in our cars.

I'm no liberal, by any stretch, so don't take this the wrong way, but:

We really need to rethink our use of energy altogether. As in completely outside the box. It's possible to live quite comfortably on somewhere between 1/4 and 1/10 of the energy the typical American uses, and retooling to live like that is our country's only hope. It's NOT possible for America (let alone China or India) to live as we do much longer.

The technology already exists. A proper earth sheltered home cuts energy use (and maintenance costs) by 90%. A/C is not necessary. You never need a new roof. Lightning strikes, tornadoes, snow loads and fires are irrelevant. No gutters, no painting, etc., etc. (Your house is bulletproof, and the whole dang thing is a bomb shelter! Highly secure, to say the least...) Then, grow your salad and veggies in a garden or greenhouse instead of flying it in from South America. Keep a few chickens, plant forage for them and feed them scrap. (Virtually free eggs and meat.)

Heat your water with evacuated tube solar. Use LED lighting. Cook at low temps, with gas, and use high quality cookware. It's that simple. You've cut well over 75% of your energy use right there! As a bonus, you've lowered your stress and improved your health with fresh safe food and a bit of exercise. (You could augment that with a bit of PV and you wouldn't know what to do with yourself!)

Much as I hate regulation, it wouldn't bother me if we outlawed new stick-built homes. Same for new installations of gas fired or electric water heaters as anything but backup for solar. Furnaces are unnecessary - you could use the smallest wood stove and get by on less than a cord a year - the heat from cooking and bathing would do much of the work! Appliances still have lots of room for improvement too, and CF bulbs are an atrocity - we should skip right past those to LED's.

Low energy living is easy. I already do most of it, and the adjustment was easy. (You can't understand how much work it is to maintain a high-consumption lifestyle until you leave it behind. This way is actually far more luxurious.) I eat better than ever, still enjoy fine wine, and have a nice bright light to read by!

I'd write more on this, but I have to go gather eggs and then meet a friend for a beer! It's really the only viable path for any survivalist...

 

Add to all this the likelihood that the timing in what BHO is saying about offshore drilling is meant as a "bone and a few crumbs" thrown to attract RINO senate and house votes in support of his next Big Govt expansion, which will probably be Cap and Trade ("Shrink the Private Sector and Tax the Survivors"). It's a bait and switch head fake with the EPA, US Navy, and even commercial fishing interests possibly presenting future road blocks to prevent exploration on all but the lowest potential hydrocarbon yielding offshore leases in the deepest (most expensive to produce) drill sites.

This exploration alone will take time (about 5 years with the road blocks), and if anything BIG is found on those leases that clear all the bureaucratic hindrances, there will be more stringent roadblocks put out to prevent developmental drilling and actual production platforms set on location. We're talking big iron and large financial commitments by oil companies before the first refinery-worthy drop is produced.

I don't like being negative about what sounds great at the outset, but with the track record of the current Administration, I believe I'm being realistic that there will be NO fast track push on this.

 

All good points. Thanks for that.

Ah... I dunno what the answer is.
I see a few viable solutions, but none uphold a growing population and the increasing standard of living we've had for the last 3 decades, let alone the current standard of living.
The real problem is the rollout of any such solution. It is just too late to implement enough of these measures without some real painful adjustment.
Hold on to your seats folks...

 

That's year-old news. As I mentioned earlier, CNG compressors are not an attractive technology. They're expensive, they wear rapidly and in-home CNG fueling is potentially high liability. (All you need is one idiot blowing up his house and incinerating himself to lose millions, whether it's the manufacturers fault or not.)

It's worth noting that there were only 14,000 Fuelmakers in place worldwide. I remember the year Fuelmaker came out - 2002. There was a CNG Honda Civic and a Phill installed in a Parade of Homes custom home here in Denver, which went with the home. (I thought it was pretty stupid to pretend to be green when you were selling a 6000 square foot luxury home, but people with more money than sense buy a lot of placebos.)

Anyway, that's about 2000 Phill units sold per year. For a high cost, high liability, high wear and service intensive product that's a very small base to spread out costs. Sounds like a clear loser to me. There sure as hell weren't enough sales to service a multi-million dollar loan.

It's interesting that Boone Pickens tried to buy it, and that lawyers killed the deal. Of course, lawyers kill more deals than they make - that's certainly not unique to Honda and there are no details of why the deal died. I like Pickens, although he's widely hated. (He's embarrassed a lot of lawyers over the years, too.)

Anyway, the assets were sold to a holding company last year for $7 million. Honda probably wiped out a lot of liability in the bankruptcy - my guess is that was the primary reason they filed. Here's some copy on the sale: "MTM S.r.L., the Italian operating subsidiary of Fuel Systems Solutions, Inc., has agreed to two separate but related purchase agreements to facilitate the transaction consisting of an agreement to acquire assets from the receiver for FuelMaker Corporation, which still needs court approval, and an executed agreement to acquire assets from American Honda Motor Co., Inc. As part of the purchase agreements, Fuel Systems Solutions has agreed to fulfill certain FuelMaker service obligations and has assumed certain outstanding purchase orders. In an additional agreement with American Honda, the company has made provisions to license technology back to American Honda under certain circumstances to support its natural gas vehicle activities. The closing of the related transactions is subject to closing conditions customary in this type of transaction."

Keep in mind that every automaker on earth was shedding money losers last spring, which marked the bottom of the market (so far!).

Honda had just bowed out of Formula One racing, too - selling the whole team to Ross Brawn for a rumored $1. Brawn (the former Ferrari technical director and mastermind of Michael Schumacher's multiple World Championships) had just come back as Honda team principal and knew what he was buying. Brawn GP took the Honda chassis, fitted it with Mercedes engines and won the 2009 driving and constructors championships. Brawn then sold a 75% stake to Mercedes for 110 million pounds at the end of the season!!!)

Brawn worked hard to get Honda to keep the team running. He told them just how good the chassis was. They simply needed out. This illustrates just how desperately automakers were shedding expenses when Fuelmaker was bankrupted. Honda wasn't in line for any government bailouts, either - they just had to cut expenses to the bone.

I just don't see the conspiracy that others see. Facts will do that...

 

That's precisely the problem. We really need a new infrastructure based on efficiency, not on some alternative fuel, since there isn't a viable liquid fuel alternative out there. That new infrastructure would be sweet, but there just isn't time or money. Individuals can save themselves, but society as a whole most likely cannot.

 

Great analysis. It's a trap, for sure.

 

You're right, but in order to make this work someone has to take the plunge. It is a classic catch-22. You don't have market for the pumps without cars, you don't have a market for the cars without fueling stations. Honda was in a prime position to take this plunge. They owned fuelmaker and as such could have offered a warranty and service. All of the obstacles such as reliability and liability are true with every new product. One could argue that the "plunge" they took was half-hearted at best. They offered the cars in only two states. They didn't even get approval for the Phill in more than a handful of states.

It would have taken years to recoup their investment if they had gone forward. This is no surprise and is true of all major ventures. How many years before Boeing recoups the cost of 7x7? Did Honda not know the risks and obstacles that would have to be overcome before developing the GX and purchasing Fuelmaker?

In retrospect, it could very well have been a typical corporate blunder where they sacrifice a huge investment - another Edsel.

But it could have been a real winner too:
Honda partners with gas suppliers to open fueling stations in major cities.
Offers a package price and warranty on the GX and Phill and 10 year service commitment.
Extend the GX to all major dealerships. It is already priced right and runs on gas as well so there's nothing to lose for the consumer.
GM and Ford see the market and start offering their existing CNG models to the public.
Gas providers get on board and open more stations.

Could have happened but didn't. Another blunder or something else? I see us going headlong over a cliff because of Peak Oil. I don't think that is due to market forces alone. Politics to maintain the status quo also play into it. Can't you say the same about this fiasco? I don't know. Just questioning what I see.

A CNG car like they use in Argentina? The IBM PC was a much crazier idea.

 

The plunge has to be taken by consumers for it to actually work, and 14,000 Phill stations in 7 years isn't much of a plunge. The Civic GX is $6000 more than a gasoline powered Civic LX, with the same level of trim and same package of features. Add $5500 more for a Phill (plus a gas line to your garage and installation) and you're up over $30K.

That's for a car with 20% less power than the gas version, shorter range and a 4 hour refuel time. As to that shorter range, understand that you'll need a tow if you run dry...

It's easy to see why this went nowhere. Honda was the only one making a CNG car for the US market, and people seem to thing they owed the public a fueling infrastructure at a loss.

I actually looked into CNG fuel for a couple of company trucks, but the state made it such a hassle (special license, up front fee, limited number of approved fueling stations, high taxation) that I quickly gave up. It's the government that didn't want this to work.

And I agree completely about Peak Oil!

 

113 hp, 23/26mpg - no idea how they measure that, but I've heard that it somehow works out to $1.50 - 2.00 / gal.

My mistake, it is NOT a dual fuel vehicle, but dedicated CNG, which is STUPID.

It's been a couple of years since I researched it, now I remember why I was searching govt. auctions. I'd buy one if it was dual fuel and could get a Phill, just the option is worth 5k since I have a very strong suspicion that gas stations will again have "Out of Gas" signs before long. Whether the public would go for it is another question. I think so when you count in greenies and "gadget guys".

Interesting topic.

 

Obama's opening up is a sham, he cut off much more than he is allowing.

Bush opened up the US to start drilling.


The energy department has thrown out 5 lease sales in Alaska, blocked any exploration off the west coast, & put up the same restrictions that were in place before.


Now O comes out with this new deal which allows of exploration, but no production until 2017.


With all the talk I have heard all my life that we are going to run out of oil, I noticed that we still have it. I did a small amount of research & found something interesting.
The proven oil reserves in 1960 for the world were 291,167.0 million barrels. In 2007, the last date available they had grown to 1,204,182.0 million barrels. Now did we not only use no oil but grow it, or did our technology find a lot more.
Now before you say that I found the information on a right-wing website, I will tell you it comes from a series of OPEC report.
http://www.opec.org/library/Annual%20Statistical%20Bulletin/interactive/2007/FileZ/XL/T10.HTM
Drill baby drill

 

You're right. We won't run out of oil. We'll run out of cheap oil. It's already happened actually. We're in the worst recession since the 1930's and oil is trading at ~$85 / bbl. It's no longer cheap. The oil that we're now recovering is expensive to get, it's poorer quality, and it's getting worse. Plus you now have 2 billion asians clamoring for the stuff.
It's not good.

The problem is that there is oil in everything we do: Food, building materials, medicine, not just transportation - just about all commodities really. When oil gets pricey, these things get pricey. When everything gets expensive your standard of living goes down.
Not only that, we've built our entire supply chain on having cheap energy. Expensive energy means that our world becomes unworkable.
Just think about the suburbs - totally unlivable if energy costs are too high.

The real big issue is that things can change overnight. Although a few plausible solutions exist (nuclear) they take years to set up.
Future technologies may fill the gap, but here you're relying on hope to save you.

It may turn out better than all of this, but think of what has to happen:
We stay in a long recession/depression while we build substitutes (we're not), or some new technology fills the gap (nothing promising), or some unheard of oil field is discovered (not happening).

It's a long race against time and we're losing ground. That's the gist of it.

Read the above posts by fireplaceguy. He's done his homework.

 

BUT what we have is a source of unlimited energy in the ATOM

With that energy we can turn plastics and rubber into High Grade OIL.

Dailymotion - George Clinton - Atomic Dog - une vidéo Musique

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hbK30oQvzso

 

We need to take OPEC numbers with a grain (if not a block) of salt. Every OPEC member has production quotas (based on STATED reserves) that they aren't supposed to exceed. The higher your stated reserves, the more you can produce. Given that such things are state secrets anyway, the whole cartel knows members just pull a number out of some orifice. (Ha! - Imagine giving an Arab an INCENTIVE to lie...) And I'm not just picking on Arab oil producers - a lot of government agencies have been known to overstate reserves, including the U. S. Geological Survey!

I hadn't seen that chart, although I'm familiar with the claims made by various oil producing regions. Two thoughts:

1) I find it incredible (literally, as in NOT credible) that the middle east has pumped the amount of oil they have over the last three decades, yet claim to have experienced a substantial increase in reserves.

2) I'm less interested in proven reserves than I am in recoverable reserves. You NEVER get 100% out of any field, PERIOD.

Most oil companies do not acknowledge peak oil, or claim it lies well off in the future. To admit that the company you run is being liquidated is bad for stock price, not to mention your bonus.

Regardless of what you believe, you should plan as though peak oil has arrived. Peak notwithstanding, monetary policy alone will likely make oil ridiculously expensive in the near future. TPTB are clearly not planning to allow further deflation in the market if they can help it. Their way to prevent that is flooding the world with new dollars. Deliberate inflation to counter the bursting of a bubble they created in the first place! The gist of this is that they're destroying the dollar to buy themselves time. Should we experience Weimar/Zimbabwe style hyperinflation, they'll be able to pay off the national debt and the unfunded liabilities with pocket change. They screw you once, then again, then again. Then, if/when the dollar collapses, these same folks will "save" us with a brand new world currency, which starts the game over again.

Given that the economy is entirely manipulated, I operate on the premise that peak oil began to rear it's head when gas hit $4/gallon, and that the timing of the collapse was no accident. If they can keep destroying demand ahead of the decline in production, they maintain control. (If peak oil became widely understood, entire countries might tell the banksters to f**k themselves, then go home and grow gardens. That would end the game - this way, they keep us on the treadmill.)

Under my scenario, expect no recovery. Ever. Eventually, inflation will hit hard. What will you do if a Quarter Pounder costs $400, a Coke is $119 and you can't afford fries because you need your last $9000 to fill your tank - and then the following month everything doubles??

Read a little history. Start with the book "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds" then look up Weimar Germany and Zimbabwe economics. Here's a taste from Wikipedia: "Zimbabwe also suffers from a crippling inflation rate, as the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe has a routine policy of printing money to satisfy government debts, which introduces excessive currency into the economic system."

Sound familiar?

After the Marxist tribal government took over, but before the currency collapsed completely, lunch in Zimbabwe cost over a trillion dollars. We may be next!

 

Oil is starting to go up up again, and a lot are saying that it could hit $3 or $4 again this summer, if not more. I see this as being nothing more than a PR stunt so when gas goes through the roof people can look back and say "We'll lookie there! Obama TRIED to do something about it before it all took place!"