The Russo-Ukraine War 2022: Politico/ Economic and Materiel Considerations For The Long War

The two YouTube clips published by Youtube contributor Perun https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCC3ehuUksTyQ7bbjGntmx3Q/featured featured below, provide a thoughtful, and insightful analysis of the present state of the Russo-Ukraine War 2022, discussing some of the possible implications for both sides of the war, into the short and mid term in the event of an unresolved protracted war.

Thoughtful contributions to the thread topic are welcome, though I am realistic in apprehending that the usual suspects are as like to distract with meme / video clip graffiti, and drift the thread towards domestic culture wars dead horse flogging...what can I say...nitwits will do nonsensical things, simply because they can,

My personal opinion is that Putin and his (civilian and military) power clique expected that it could effect regime change in Ukraine quickly and with relatively little cost, in much the same way that the Soviet Union had done in Hungary in 1956 during the Hungarian Revolution Hungarian Revolution of 1956 - Wikipedia (albeit with some significant resistance by the Hungarians) Czechoslovakia during the Prague Spring in 1968, Prague Spring - Wikipedia or that Hitler had done in Austria in the 1938 'Anschluss Österreichs' Anschluss - Wikipedia.

Putin, has to his surprise, painfully discovered that the Ukrainians are putting up a more effective resistance to Russian military incursions (with NATO, EU, and broader Western help from around the world) than he expected, and that the Ukrainians have had the will, thus far to keep on giving the Russian Bear a continuing bloody nose pummeling for its troubles . The Ukrainians are exacting a mounting death toll of Russian coffin drivers (AFV crews) and the PBI (Poor Bloody Infantry) and destruction of war materiel. Russia has the capacity to sustain those losses for a while to come, but at considerable cost to the Russian people broadly, and the Russian economy in particular. Recent history is replete with conflicts where the underdog, has doggedly prevailed over seemingly better equipped and more powerful military opponents, only to find that their opponents' civilian populations don't have the stomach for continuing combat operations over the long haul.





Perun's videos are essentially slide show podcasts. They are quite long, but packed with a lot of interesting thought provoking information.

I hope that Ukraine has the political and social will to keep fighting, with the continuing effective support of the West (NATO, EU et al). The Russians are to Ukraine (and Western Europe) as The Turks were to Europe at Vienna in 1683. Battle of Vienna - Wikipedia The Russians are the clear and present 'enemy at the gate'. At present, the Ukrainian people and their military forces are paying the butcher's bill for defending their nation against Putin's unprovoked war of aggression against Ukraine and its territorial sovereignty: Once Putin acts in such a way that it invokes Article 5 of the NATO Charter Collective defence - Article 5, then the butcher's bill will inevitably widen further. Better that Russia is defeated by the Ukrainians in Ukraine than Putin wins that contest, and moves onto his plausible next victim, which is likely to be Moldova One tiny European nation fears it may be central to Putin's plans to wreak new havoc in Ukraine

 

I say come ahead and see what you get

 

*Yawn*
Is this supposed to blow up my skirt?
Your fear mongering no longer works.

 

I know right?? If you want to scare people nuclear war is so 1985. Today you need something more along the lines of... racisms or 'he called me the wrong pronoun!'

 

Let them come says me, I got plenty of Boolits Band-aids, and Broccoli! Putin or Xi decides to do us dirty, They gonna find out the hard way, 'Murica don't play nice, we don't follow no rules! Blade of Grass, Patriots doing Patriot Shit kinda ass kickin be commin!
We don't need NATO sendin in rockets or kevlar, we got this just fine! We got the Cajun Navy, the Back Country Blue Angles, the Red Neck Marines, and the Biggest Army of Snek Eaters ever born! We got so many damn huntin rifles here that war be over before half make it off the beaches! Air Assault, Yea Right! I be strappin rockets and shit under my wings and doin the Piper version of the A-10!

 

Billions of Chinamen's, I bet we each fire three times and it's game over, no more Chinamen!

 

Putin considers himself a Soviet-era leader of the masses. A wanna-be Joseph Stalin, who led the WW2 USSR thru fear and intimidation, then pushed to increase the size of his empire by absorbing the eastern European countries that the Russians had agreed to liberate from the Nazis. Carried forward by his successors, throughout the years following the war.

In reality, ol' Vlad is leading a country which has barely held on in the 30 years since the end of the Cold War. As seen during the past 2 months, even a second rate military, like Ukraine's, can give them a run for their money. IMHO, he only retains control of Russia by controlling the state media, and whatever intimidation he can get away with (including his nukes, unfortunately). Truth be told, he's probably more worried about what his people will do to him, than anything the western nations have done, so far.

 

This is probably an unpopular opinion. There was a treaty stating in effect that Nato would not seek to move to the Russian border. The US pushed Russia into this.

Does no one remember what happened when Russia wanted to put nukes in Cuba? The US was not ok with that, and now Russia was expected to be ok when nato does it to them?

So now we have a situation where the sanctions are hurting Russia, but they are also hurting the rest of the world, especially the less developed nations, where the population was already struggling to put food on their tables.

 

My bad, not a treaty, but a commitment that came about following the fall of the Berlin wall. The comment of US Secretary of State James A Baker to Soviet leader Mikhail Girbachev in February 1990 stated that "there would be no extension of NATO's jurisdiction for forces of NATO one inch to the east"

 

And yet, Russias escalated tensions compelled those former Soviet States to Join the west, and now, both Finland and Sweden are wanting to join! Russia brought the west closer to their borders by the very actions they themselves condemned! Let's not fool ourselves, Russia wants the Old Soviet Empire back, and this is the first moves against NATO toward that goal!

 

@chelloveck for once I agree with your assessment. Truth is that a population that does not want to be subjugated will never be ruled by an outside force. Russia and the US have both learned this lesson, especially where Afghanistan is concerned.

I've read that the bribes that were intended to assure the cooperation of Ukrainian officials never took place and were instead kept by those that were supposed to do the bribing. Putin was assured that the bribes happened and that there would be cooperation and pulled the trigger.

Russia ultimately will be the big loser. Putin thought he was trading trust for fear induced respect. It's not going to happen. Instead his conventional military might has lost it's prestige now that it has faced strong opposition and western defensive systems. If he over extends and loses heavily he has to worry about retaining the portions of Siberia (including Vladivostok) that China disputes as their own traditional territory. I have read reports of China softening it's support for Russia the day after they gave indications of solidarity. This could get much, much more interesting.

On other forums I predicted that China would be the big winner regardless of Russia's success and I still stand by that. Russia wins and the West and NATO is weakened. Russia loses and China takes the disputed territories and buys Russian energy at bargain rates.

Long term there will be continuing impacts to Russia's economy so long as Putin or anybody else the rest of the world does not trust is in power. Russia thinks that grain, gas, and oil will make the West cave but forgets that the West did just fine when the former USSR was isolated.