The Distribution of murders

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by OldDude49, Sep 5, 2020.


  1. OldDude49

    OldDude49 Just n old guy

    Map-US-Murder-Fixed-723x494.

    Murders in US very concentrated: 54% of US counties in 2014 had zero murders, 2% of counties have 51% of the murders
    25 Apr , 2017

    You can examine the picture of the US counties in more detail by opening it in a new tab.

    The Distribution of murders
    The United States can really be divided up into three types of places. Places where there are no murders, places where there are a few murders, and places where murders are very common.

    In 2014, the most recent year that a county-level breakdown is available, 54% of counties (with 11% of the population) have no murders. 69% of counties have no more than one murder, and about 20% of the population. These counties account for only 4% of all murders in the country.

    The worst 1% of counties have 19% of the population and 37% of the murders. The worst 2% of counties contain 28% of the population and 51% of the murders. The worst 5% of counties contain 47% of the population and account for 68% of murders. But even within those counties the murders are very heavily concentrated in small areas.

    Murders actually used to be even more concentrated. From 1977 to 2000, on average 73 percent of counties in any given year had zero murders. Possibly, this change is a result of the opioid epidemic’s spread to more rural areas. But that question is beyond the scope of this study. Lott’s book “More Guns, Less Crime” showed how dramatically counties within states vary dramatically with respect to murder and other violent crime rates.

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    Breaking down the most dangerous counties in Figure 2 shows over half the murders occur in just 2% of the counties, 37% in just the worst 1% of the counties.

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    Figure 1 illustrates how few counties have a significant number of murders. Figure 3 further illustrates that with a cumulative perspective. 54% of counties have zero murders, 69% have at most one murder, 76% have at most two murders, and so on. To put it differently, only the top four percent of the counties have 16 or more murders.

    In 2014, the murder rate was 4.4 per 100,000 people. If the 1% of the counties with the worst number of murders somehow were to become a separate country, the murder rate in the rest of the US would have been only 3.4 in 2014. Removing the worst 2% or 5% would have reduced the US rate to just 3.06 or 2.56 per 100,000, respectively.

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    Even within the Counties with the murders, the murders are heavily Concentrated within those counties
    When you look at individual counties with a high number of murders, you find large areas with few murders. Take Los Angeles County, with 526 murders in 2014, the most of any county in the US. The county has virtually no murders in the northwestern part of the county. There was only one murder each in Beverly Hills, Hawthorne, and Van Nuys. Clearly, different parts of the county face very different risks of murder.

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    The map below shows the distribution of murders in Indianapolis, with 135 murders. Although the city extends well beyond the 465 Highway that encircles downtown Indianapolis, there are only four murders outside of that loop. The northern half of the city within 465 also has relatively few murders.

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    Washington, DC has large areas without murders. 14th Street NW divides the eastern and western parts of the district, with murders overwhelmingly limited to the eastern half. The area around the capitol is also extremely safe.

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    Here is the murder map for Dallas.

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    Here are Chicago’s murders through the first 4.5 months of 2017 (there were 222 homicides by that point). One small neighborhood, Austin, accounts over 25 murders. But 23 of the 77 neighborhoods in the city have zero murders, and most of the 40 neighborhoods in orange have only one murder. Twelve of the neighborhoods have 10 or more murders.

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    In a study in the journal Criminology, David L. Weisburd has a paper titled “The law of crime concentration and the criminology of place” that shows for eight cities 25% of violent crime occurred on one percent of the streets and that about half occurred on five percent of the streets.


    more info on site...

    Murders in US very concentrated: 54% of US counties in 2014 had zero murders, 2% of counties have 51% of the murders - Crime Prevention Research Center
     
    duane, Altoidfishfins and ditch witch like this.
  2. enloopious

    enloopious Rocket Surgeon

    Is the first one the murder map or the Democrat map?
     
    Altoidfishfins likes this.
  3. oldman11

    oldman11 Monkey+++

    The first one is most likely a democrat murder map . Of all the murders that are committed in the USA,what percent are democrat and what percent Republican?
    [flag]
     
  4. Seacowboys

    Seacowboys Senior Member Founding Member

    I know a few republicans that I wish someone would murder...just sayin' I ain't got much use for Rhinos.
     
  5. oil pan 4

    oil pan 4 Monkey+++

    So get democrats to stop killing each other and 80 to 90% of murders stop.
     
    duane likes this.
  6. duane

    duane Monkey+++

    But if you police the areas where most of the murders are occurring with more stops and increased police coverage, then you are racial profiling and they have to go to court and protest the treatment. Same with stopping members of a small group, a fraction of 1 %, who commit about 50 % of the murders in the country. Call them what you wish but 18 to 34, male members of the minority community, living in the ghetto areas, with previous contact with the law enforcement, commit a major percentage of all the crime in the USA and then of course make up a large percentage of those in prison.
     
    Mountainman, Oddcaliber and Merkun like this.
  7. Merkun

    Merkun furious dreamer

    Once again, statistics can make liars out of both sides. But of course, the murder density has to be caused by the silent majority that allows the main offenders to concentrate in communities such that conditions conducive to crime are enhanced.
     
  8. OldDude49

    OldDude49 Just n old guy

    allows??? not sure I follow that... who makes em reside there?
     
  9. ghrit

    ghrit Bad company Administrator Founding Member

    They are forced into deprived enclaves by being oppressed and deprived of job opportunities that will allow them to live on, say, the upper east side among the privileged. Jeez, That is the implied message anyway. White privilege allows whites to get better educations thus can earn more and live the life of privilege. So throw some better (money) schooling into the murder centers than into privileged enclaves and the disparity will disappear. Those chasing that idea seem to think it'll be a near instantaneous stopping of type on type killings and ignore the question of who pays.

    Anyone that wants to dig around most likely will find that the more privileged non white are behind the agitation. Like, say, a zero clone or wannabe. It's always someone else that causes friction.

    Then again, maybe it's cultural. Board shorts worn at half staff and a hoodie with a dropped out sixth grade education should have the same opportunity to work on Wall Street as one that earned the education and wears a suit. Cultural doesn't seem the right word, somehow. Maybe envious? Envious of those that worked for it?

    Yes, I am personally tired of this entire streak of shit.
     
    duane and Tully Mars like this.
  10. duane

    duane Monkey+++

    Always the real problem, Union of South Africa, Rhodesia, a lot of other places and a lot of other times, Rome, to ancient Greece, etc, have shown that the idiots in their quest for the end of privilege or some other reason are very capable of destroying an advanced society and a good way of life. Change and a new power bloc does not mean that the old system nor the old prosperity will continue and the record of the leftists and their assumption of power has not been well. Really don't see the advantage of 10% elite, 90% leading a life in which cars, tv, cell phone, etc is normal being replace by 100% being poor and lacking even enough food to eat. Some how do not really wish to have my medical care being supplied by someone who was given the job based on **** and not on skill, nor do I expect the sewer, water, electric, food production and distribution system, etc to be efficient when the people in charge are appointed on basis of race, clan, political party,and such. History is full of examples that failed and I know of none that succeeded. The vast majority of today's protesters are dependent on their parents income or some government income for the funding for their lifestyle and the money to travel to the next "protest". We are engaged in a civil war in wich a small percentage wishes to rule the majority and create a new perfect society and of course as is always the belief, only they have the moral right and God given wisdom to be in charge. If history is to be used as a basis of study, it may well end up as the destruction of the old regime, followed by the destruction of the leaders of the revolt, or just the leaders of the revolt. However in the period from 1900 to 2000, well over 100 million died as a byproduct of political changes successful and failed.
     
  11. OldDude49

    OldDude49 Just n old guy

    IIRC there was a time when it was considered by many of the so called disadvantaged that actually getting and education was wrong...

    even recall they were proud to be uneducated... also recall selling/dealing drugs was the chosen avenue to rich's for many???

    also recall they would abuse their own that sought an education???
     
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