Vinay Prasad January 15, 2022 Updated: January 16, 2022 biggersmaller Print Commentary A number of studies are converging on the fact that 2 doses of vaccination has poor vaccine effectiveness against Omicron. 3 doses does slightly better, but the effect will rapidly wane as antibody titers fall, and infection is certain as the number of exposures increase. These studies have immediate implications for vaccine and health-care policies. First, Kaiser Southern California. Here are data for 2 doses of mRNA for effectiveness against Omicron. Follow the red line. Over time, it is 0 percent. 3 doses does better, for now. But look at the confidence interval of the red line. We have no idea if it will be preserved. Now, let’s turn to the Province of Ontario, vaccine effectiveness 2 dose or 3 dose is in the toilet; Note the y axis, and broad confidence interval post dose 3. Here dose 3 would fail to meet the FDA standard of at least 50 percent VE, with lower bound CI >30 percent—the standard for EUA. Now let us examine Denmark; here are the raw probabilities of secondary attack in a household. Putting these 3 studies together: what is the conclusion? Two doses of vaccine does nothing or almost nothing to stop symptomatic SARS-CoV-2. Three doses barely does anything, and the effect will likely attenuate over time. Finally, as the number of exposures increase from 2 to 22 to 202, the cumulative probability of infection will approach 1. NOTE: This is not an argument about the benefits of vaccination for the individual—vaccines likely (and evidence shows they) still have great protection against severe disease; instead this is an argument about the effects of vaccination on symptomatic diseases, and (some good portion of) transmission. Conclusion: you cannot contain the viral spread of omicron by boosting. The moment we see that, the policy conclusions start to fall into place. Booster mandates make no sense for young people, working people, hospitals, anywhere. Young people will only be, at best, slightly less likely to spread for a short period of time, but the epidemic waves will eventually over take them. Boosting should happen in populations where it further reduces severe disease and death—aka older and vulnerable people. Focus on that and let college kids off the hook. Some argue there is still a justification to boost because you can help prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed. Sadly, that argument fails in several ways. First, you have no evidence boosting younger people will slow hospitalizations. A vaccinated younger person already has very low risk of being hospitalized. Boosting may not further lower what is already very low. We simply have no evidence. Event rates are sparse at those ages. Second, this argument would mean the state could tell people what to eat and how much to exercise, and how much to drink. Food, drink and obesity are drivers of hospitalizations. Instead, we have not accepted these infringements in the past. The justification for vaccine mandates is that it helps curb population spread. The latest vaccine effectiveness figures show that effect is now nearly gone, and transient at best. Ergo, the mandates are unjustified. Firing nurses and other health care workers for being non-compliant with mandates is now defeating. We are better off having them work. Time to bring them back. Draconian avoidance of omicron is not tenable. Omicron or a future variant will eventually find us all. It may even be preferable to encounter omicron a few weeks or months after your last vaccine than a year or two later, as the infection may be milder. As I explain in a prior post, wearing an n95 makes no sense. It is time to face reality. From the Brownstone Institute Views expressed in this article are the opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.
Just remember, three years ago the annual flu vacc was only 30% effective, yet folks still ran out to get one. Why? Because some people died from the flu.
Meanwhile today out of Israel, headlines today: COVID 4th jab: Antibodies rise, not enough to prevent Omicron infection The fourth dose of the Pfizer coronavirus vaccine increases the level of antibodies in the blood but does not seem to offer protection against infection by the coronavirus Omicron variant, preliminary results from a study on 150 healthcare workers conducted at the Sheba Medical Center have shown. “Two weeks after administering the fourth vaccine, we see a good increase in the antibodies, higher than after the third dose, but not high enough against Omicron,” lead researcher Prof. Gili Regev-Yochay said. “People are getting infected, maybe in slightly lower numbers compared to individuals in the control group, but not lower in any significant way,” she said. COVID 4th jab: Antibodies rise, not enough to prevent Omicron infection
Omicron may be lethal to some, but then again so it the cold and the flu. This is now moving to an endemic and it's simply time to learn to live with it. That's the reality, I believe this guy I don't believe politicians, bureaucrats and corporations who have a conflict of interest.
Coordinated art protest in east and west coast locations "When the bough breaks, the baby will fall" like most nursery rhymes started out as political satire. Get ready for a loud snap followed by a louder crash.
This is exactly what every reliable expert in the field has been saying since day one, and has also been my own estimation, not being highly qualified and simply using common sense. You do not vaccinate healthy people from something their own bodies are capable of defending against, and you do not quarantine healthy people. Every known, logical, proven scientific fact to all of this has been wholly ignored and censored. Not just the honest and reliable experts in the field of study have been censored, but the very people who ought to be telling us what to do have been banned from social media for speaking out. I think by now we've discovered that vaccinating is generally a good thing. But when it comes to this Covid/Omicron and whatever version that may be next -all bets are off the table.
Let us not call it a vaccine. Doing so only supports the lie that is "New Speak" and there is strength in truth.
I find it telling that there are a bunch of very pissed off doctors and health care workers who have all banded together to formally denounce the Seth Rogan podcast of Dr. Malone and move to have that stricken from public access! Everyone on the left is calling it out as fake, claiming the doctor is ginning up false truths and making false claims and accusations! Think about it for a few: the good doctor is the guy who invented the treatment, and he flat knows what he is talking about. The people calling him fake and demanding the interview be pulled/banned are all in the same bed, profiting from Covid, they get paid everytime some one tests positive for Covid, everytime some one takes the jab, and especially everytime some one needs care, as long as they also have Covid! Note how all these self important are ALL politically aligned to the left, and how they are all singing the same Nazi marching tune! Yup, more tinfoil from the right, while the left seeks to suppress the truth! You all know the truth here, I'm not telling you anything you don't already know, just sharing some "Fun Facts" I have discovered about the lefts playbook!
