Another Covid Calculator

Discussion in 'Survival of the Fittest' started by CraftyMofo, Feb 3, 2022.


  1. CraftyMofo

    CraftyMofo Monkey+++

    The other day I talked to a friend who said he knew 4 people who have died from Covid. I thought the chances of that must be pretty low, so my statistical mind went to work. I decided to put a little math into action.
    One variable that we need is how many people do you "know"? I thought about it a bit, and decided on 300 people. I don't do social media, aside from the Monkey so this is what I came up with between family, neighbors and friends. (I did a search later and found that 600 is a commonly accepted number).
    Next, we need a death and survival rate. You could probably get pretty complicated in calculating this since the profile of the people you know has a lot to do with this, so I just chose to use this:
    900,000 deaths / 329,500,000 => .00273​
    Using a binomial distribution:
    Chance of not knowing a person that died from covid: 300 choose 0 * (.00273)^0 * (.99727)^300 =0.4403788174
    Chance of knowing 1 person who died from covid: 300 choose 1 * (.00273)^1 * (.99727)^299 =0.36165757664
    Chance of knowing 2 people who died from covid:300 choose 2 * (.00273)^2 * (.99727)^298 =0.1480091801
    Chance of knowing 3 people who died from covid:300 choose 3 * (.00273)^3 * (.99727)^297 =0.04024700378
    Chance of knowing 4 people who died from covid:300 choose 4 * (.00273)^4 * (.99727)^296 =0.00818050105
    Chance of knowing 5 people who died from covid:300 choose 5 * (.00273)^5 * (.99727)^295 =0.00132571907
    Chance of knowing 6 people who died from covid:300 choose 6 * (.00273)^6 * (.99727)^294 =0.00017843176
    Chance of knowing 7 people who died from covid:300 choose 7 * (.00273)^7 * (.99727)^293 =0.00002051499
    Chance of knowing 8 people who died from covid:300 choose 8 * (.00273)^8 * (.99727)^292 =0.00000205683
    Chance of knowing 9 people who died from covid:300 choose 9 * (.00273)^9 * (.99727)^291 =0.000000182679201
    Chance of knowing 10 people who died from covid:300 choose 10 * (.00273)^10 * (.99727)^290=0.0000000145523116

    You can paste the following into Google "300 choose 4 * (.00273)^4 * (.99727)^296" since most of us can't do this by hand!
    Using my estimation, the chances of knowing 4 people who died from Covid is 0.8%, or if you like odds better, 1 person in 125 knows of 4 people who died.
     
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  2. Minuteman

    Minuteman Chaplain Moderator Founding Member

    I personally know at least 20 people who have had Covid. I only know one person who you could say died from it. A friend of mine caught it. He had some underlying conditions. Mainly asthma. He was getting worse and got his doctor to prescribe the monoclonal antibodies treatment. He went to the hospitol and they told him they didn't have it available but would admit him and treat him until it came in. It never did. They began to administer Remdesiver, even tho he had specifically said he did not want that. It caused his liver to not work effeciently and his lungs filled up with fluid. They put him on a ventilator and started him on Lasik which removes fluid from the body through the liver. His liver was already compromised and eventually failed. He passed away never regaining consciousness. Basically they lied to him, got him in the hospitol, ignored his express wishes for treatment and eventually killed him.
    A great many of the deaths were from cormobidities and not the Covid, and many more were medical malpractice. So the real true number of people who have died "from Covid" is unknown, but certainly far, far less than the "official" count.
     
  3. OldDude49

    OldDude49 Just n old guy

    sounds like too many hospitals are doing similar things to people...
     
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  4. duane

    duane Monkey+++

    Like all other statistics, data is skewed. If you are healthy 25 year old, above numbers are close, as an unhealthy 84 year old, I know several people who died of covid, or whose lives were at least shortened by it. Those whom I interact with in turn lost dozens of individuals who I at least have heard of. I have contact with about 75 people who live in assisted living facilities or nursing homes. I also have contact with about 50 people in advanced cancer care, surgery, chemo, and radiation treatment, In addition about half of my friends are 70 or older. How many "died" of covid, I don't know, but many have it listed as the factor that ended a long battle against some other disease. But then the old fashioned flu and such do so in every year. My cancer surgeon is at least as concerned with the old fashioned flu and normal pneumonia as covid.

    I do admit that the forced isolation, limiting treatments, lockdowns, exploiting it for political reasons, mandatory shots, etc , are factors I have never seen before and thus I have severe doubts as to what is really going on. It seems like an attempted regime change and political control are the real effects of the disease and not any real medical attempts to actually control the disease.


    .
     
  5. VisuTrac

    VisuTrac Ваша мать носит военные ботинки Site Supporter+++

    I know 5 that died from 30 to 75 years old skewed towards 60+ yo. 3 long haul coviders (3 months plus fighting it).
    Not counting those under hospice care, over 65 with multiple comorbidities that were in bad shape before they did the covid dance nor those over 85
     
  6. mysterymet

    mysterymet Monkey+++

    9 Functional-Medicine Strategies to Help Treat Long-Haul COVID
     
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  7. RouteClearance

    RouteClearance Monkey+++

    I did know two people that died from COVID, both were put on ventilators, and both died within a week of being placed on the vents.
     
  8. enloopious

    enloopious Rocket Surgeon

    Whats Covid?
     
  9. oil pan 4

    oil pan 4 Monkey+++

    Looks like no one whos healthy under the age of 50 needs the damn shot.
    And you can't use "I'll get the shot so I don't spread it" as an excuse because that's bullshit. Now with the shot you are just more likely to have no symptoms, mild symptoms plus a new symptom unique to shot getters: denial. And you can still spreed it.
     
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  10. Seawolf1090

    Seawolf1090 Retired Curmudgeonly IT Monkey Founding Member

    My sister died from.... the covid pseudo-"vaccine". Perfectly healthy, no symptoms, no comorbidities, granted overweight. Just turned 63. Just got her second jab. Visited me Friday morning (7May 2021), went home and complained of leg pain. BIL took her to the Urgent Care, where she collapsed. Attempts to revive failed, she died. Blood clots from legs went to her heart, killing her. A primary complication of both Pfizer and J&J shots, the infamous "clotshots".
    I've been selfisolating, easy enough as I'm a hermit at heart, and haven't heard of anyone else I know getting covid or having "vax" complications.
    With my longterm health problems, including fighting PE/DVT (bloodclots) since 2012, type 2 diabetic and some heart swelling, I simply cannot risk the killer "vax". I am using a different protocol.
     
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  11. enloopious

    enloopious Rocket Surgeon

    Sorry to hear about your loss SW. That is terrible. Smart not to get it.

    I hear they are going to start putting the ingredients in the packaging in the next few years. The warning label should also list myocarditis and death as possible side effects soon... but then again if you have watched any television set in the past 20 years you have seen a whole slew of drugs with those as side effects as well as thousands of others. Should be no surprise.
     
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  12. Bandit99

    Bandit99 Monkey+++ Site Supporter+

    I've only known one person that has died of covid induce pneumonia and that is more than enough for me, hope to God that don't know anymore. Yes, he was ~72 years-old but was healthy prior, wasn't overweight, it just got into his lungs and that was that. Currently, wife is still recovering as can't seem to get rid of the cough and I'm still recovering from a small lung infection from it.

    I find it horribly amazing that we can destroy the planet with huge nuclear weapons, delivered with extreme accuracy and hyper-sonic speed but can't do anything for viral illness except stick some oxygen up one's nose and wish them luck.
     
    Last edited: Feb 7, 2022
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  13. Dunerunner

    Dunerunner Brewery Monkey Moderator

    The lack of a valid therapeutic protocol after all this time speaks poorly of the medical community. 6 months ago, I asked my medical advisor about therapeutics, and he had no answer. I even asked about monoclonal antibodies, Ivermectin, and Remdesiver and the response was vague. I questioned why the medical community was not openly discussing treatments outside of the vaccine and he had no explanation.
     
  14. enloopious

    enloopious Rocket Surgeon

    Well, just like Fauci said, "just wait until the profits start rolling in" in reference to hiding info from the public. I don't think any of this is an accident but I may be jaded. I don't think so. I think of myself as a realist but have been called jaded before.
     
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  15. Bandit99

    Bandit99 Monkey+++ Site Supporter+

    You might be jaded but that has little to do if you are correct or not and I believe you are totally correct! This was not an accident. It was man-made, escaped the labs by design or accident, and then used for all it was worth to corrupt a presidential election and to obtain and maintain as much control as possible. Where they will take it from here has yet to be seen but it is starting to become obvious, they have used this crisis for about as much as possible and as long as possibe so...so I wouldn't be surprised to see them start another and soon.
     
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