The Pandemic fallout is a LONG way from over.

I stopped by one of the little restaurants that never obeyed the shut down mandate and did a brisk business through all of 2020. I have been friends with the owner for 14 years now and stop there a 2-3 times per week. I noticed yesterday he had changed the hours from 6am to 10pm to 8am to 7pm and was going to be closed Sunday, Monday and Tuesdays. Usually when I and a couple of other come in and start filling up the round table at 2-3 pm when things are slow he comes out and sits with us and shoots the shit. After hour with 4 of us there he finally emerged from the kitchen and looked like death warmed over.

So after some small talk we got down to it. He is seriously thinking about closing up shop. Two weeks ago both of his cooks quit both wanted $20 per hours and half of the servers tips. Half the servers quit (They were demanding $20 per hour plus tips) and both of his dish washers quit, yep they wanted $20 per hour as well and a cut of the tips. So he is left with 3 servers and himself as Cook and Dishwasher and for the last two weeks have been working 6am-10pm 7 days per week with no end in sight. So he cut the days open and the hours, He has always paid considerably more than minimum wage, when everyone else was paying $10 per hour he was paying $15, server he paid $8 plus their tips. So he has been running adds, trying to hire and getting near zero response. The ones he has managed to hire are next to worthless and quite in a day or two.

So he looks at me and says "I hear you have parked two of the three food trailers this year? Want to work for me until next season?" I work for him on and off over the late fall and winter when he needs help. Makes a little extra money in the off season and gets me out of the house. And Yep I parked two of the trailers this year for the same reason he cut his business days and hours back. I CAN'T find anyone to work, and my base pay is $15 per hour CASH and everyone gets a equal share from the tip can so the pay is $15 per hour up to $25ish per hour after the tips are split. Mrs T5R and the one die hard long time hired hand are running the small food trailer Saturdays and Sundays. Takes 5 people to run the Chuck Wagon and 3 to Run the mid size Wagon. A lot easier for me to park 2 or all 3 and idle the insurance for a year and wait this crap out than it is for him to shut down a brick and mortar and still have the property taxes and basic general overhead of ownership.

It is NOT a lack of business that is killing us, it is a lack of hired hands, can't run a ship without a crew but you can't pay the crew more than the cargo is worth. The other problem is supply and supply cost. The price of everything wholesale has gone through the roof at the same time every prospective hired hand believe they should be paid premium wages and be able to work only when they feel like it. In my case the cost of processing hogs and steers has nearly doubled over the last year and that is assuming you can get one or two on the processing schedule in the next 8-12 months and I buy in the poultry. As it is right now the price is HIGH and the availability very questionable and hit and miss. If you want leg quarters all you can find bulk are drums and breast, you want breast and all you can find is leg quarters. Makes it damn hard to have a regular menu!

It is not just food service suffering from this. Pretty much everything retail and even manufacturing is suffering from supply chain instability and staff shortages. I just happen to be in the food business and see it up close and personal there.

So I guess I will be working as cook and dishwasher at my friends joint on Fridays and Saturdays open to close for the $30 per hour Cash he offered since as he put it "I can trust you and you know the kitchen and business inside out." LOL so much for me taking the year off and dicking around on the farm

The bad thing is it helps his problem and I am not going to complain about the extra cash coming in but it does not even begin to resolve both of our underlying problems. These are also not just businesses problems, these are EVERYONE's problems. This is where the inflation starts and yes Inflation has started, it started with the panic buying in the 2020 spring and the supply chains breaking, it got worse when the Government paid people more to NOT work than working paid particularly in the low skill to no skill minimum wage jobs. Sorry but if yer trying to raise a family on a minimum wage job, you are doing it all wrong! Food Service jobs actually pay very well if you prove yourself are dependable and stick around. The main cook I had working for me was worth $35 per hour and I paid him $35 per hour, he did the work of 10 others and covered every station as needed. At 74 he told me last fall that 2020 was his last year, he just could not keep doing the long hot days anymore. A new person that is a total unknown that probably won't work through one full show....... They get paid the bare minimum until they prove themselves to be worth more. Most of us understand the value of Good hired hands and will pay what they are worth. I sure as hell am not going to pay $20 per hour to someone that is worth $2.00 per hour or worse should be paying me to have them around.

We as a Nation have created some very deep structural problems that are going to have long term consequences and be very hard to to walk back, from production to consumer there is a harsh price that is and will continue to be paid for sometime to come. I will work and earn it has been replaced with I deserve it! GIVE IT TO ME!!!

 

I think we all saw this coming, at least a part of it when "They" raised the minimum wages a couple of years ago, $15.00 per hour is a LOT of money for basic labor!!! It will only get worse as the "Stimulus" checks keep coming, and folks take work elsewhere for more money!
It's everywhere, companies are having to raise the pay floor to attract new employees who are more then happy to take the increase! The problem is, it's like the snow ball effect, raise the wages and everything else now cost more to cover the increase in wages now being paid! Those same employees who quit a $15.00 hour job may or may not actually find another job for more then what they were making today, but they hold all the cards when it comes to higher paying jobs!
Until the bottom drops out, again!
When it does, those people who were quick to jump ship will be the first ones let go, and this time, they will not be getting $15.00 per hour, they will be lucky to see $10.00 and be damn thankful for it!

Look at it this way Amazon is hiring drivers around here, starting pay is $19.65 per hour, and lots of O.T! While a good city gig Truck Driving job requiring a CDL only pays $18.75. per hour! Who would you choose?
Even worse for the Class A drivers doing a interstate route, around $24.00 per hour, and no overtime past 60 hours cause Fed Hours of service!

 

When you have to compete against the government unemployment payrate, you either have to pay way more, do it all yourself or close up shop.
It's a backdoor minimum wage hike.
wait until inflation kicks in and they starve on unemployment 'wages'. They'll be back but there will be no one left to hire them.
If you got good workers now, pay them what they are worth to you and your business, because if they leave, you are going to have a hell of a time replacing them.

 

Been seeing the same thing in this area for employment. Seems most stores (retail, food, etc.) are looking to hire, but no one is applying.
My daughter "changed" jobs this year. She worked for about 9 months at a shit-hole of a Subway store (so bad, we won't eat at the Subways around us cause they are owned by the same jerk) and was making 7.45/hr. I saw an add for Wendys offering up to 10.00/hr and let her know. She called, interviewed and was offered a job basically the same day, starting at 9.00/hr. Within 30 days she had her first raise, up to 10.00/hr. Not bad for a 17 y.o., and she's working 30-35 hours per week.
Found out that most of the local restaurants have and still are closing early most nights due to short staff.
Pretty much the same, everyone wants 15.00+ for a starting position. Sorry, minimum wage was NEVER meant to be a living wage, it was something that high school kids could get to start earning some spending money.

 

Yep, local Subway, been eating there for a few years went thru "management change" because of virus, got rid of very good manager who couldn't run the place, hard to do without help. Had a group of minority females take over the operation as some kind of Fed State retraining program, ran place into ground, always out of supplies, floors were dirty, insulted you and stood around and talked to each other rather than serve you. Don't know how they are doing, haven't been back in weeks, but they have a new flashing sign in front of place that said "Under new management".

Fix power tools, 83 years old with cancer, boss can't find a replacement mechanic, worked overtime day before surgery, if I want to work, and I feel I can, go in, he will pay me. Its not the money, we have to have a mechanic to keep the warranty money and I have worked there 34 years and they have always treated me very well, They would like to run it a while longer, but it is about all to end I guess. The younger people have no knowledge of how things work, no work ethic, expect to get everything today, and if they don't get it, someone stole it from them and they should be given it anyhow. Sitting home smoking "legal" dope while being paid by the government with borrowed money would seem to this old man to be a dead end, but most of the congress seems to think that they can kick the can down the road forever. Need some work done about house, dishwasher replaced, pressure tank for pump replaced, etc. Have to have state license to do it now, in Mass have to have person from fire department on site to solder a copper pipe, call out fee of course, so you call plumber, electrician, etc, and they won't even come out or $200 to replace a kitchen faucet.

Don't look good.

 

I always saw the minimum wage jobs that way, they get your foot in the door and give you a chance to prove yourself and get a good reference under your belt to move another step up the ladder.

 

Intill the soaring cost of living, which is driven by the runaway health care cost is brought under control, there will never be a living wage. Just how long would that $15 an hour job be eaten up by, ie inflaion. Let us also ad the national debt any the future is even more bleak.

 

This is hitting the engineering world too. Can’t find the talent and when you do, they want 20-50k a year more than firms in the midwest were paying for the same skill set and experience level just a year ago. When we used to get 20-30 “acceptable” resumes (actual degreed engineers and not HS grads claiming to be) coming in per week, the last few months are like 3-4. And we know our competitors and customers are in the same boat.

We know part of our problem is Covid really normalized remote work from home. Many jobs will never return to the office full time. So we aren’t competing just with other firms in the midwest for talent but now both coasts and even a bit internationally. It has opened the door to more work but we can’t staff it.

The hot ticket now is live in the low cost south or midwest but work remote for a firm on the west coast or north east still paying wages like folks have the high coastal cost of living.

 

And, BIG Pharma keeps on charging astronomic prices for meds that cost pennies to produce!
I know this for a fact, one of the meds my buddy's little daughter has to take cost the insurer $16,000 per month, and they can get the same exact thing in Canada for around $160, and in Germany for even less!
Hell, even in Mexico, those meds cost less then $200 per month! Who is stroking who???

 

I have a friend who is in management at Lily. US customers are paying the billions in development costs for each new drug which have to be amortized in the prices, plus the ROI investors want. The other countries’ governments buy the drugs and simply won’t pay much, they’ll just say no and their citizens suffer, those governments don’t care. If the US market doesn’t cover the development costs with a return, a new drug simply doesn’t happen. Plus while patents can be for up to 17 years in US, by the time a drug is through trials there may only be 12-13 years left for patent protection before it goes generic. These other countries are not paying their fair share and are getting a free ride. So, what’s new?

 

The smart coastal firms pay a location differential. Ask me how I know.

 

I may come out of retirement it will need to be good money.

 

Gotta love Global Regional Pricing where a handful of Countries pay premium and everyone else pays below wholesale.

 

It is true that the traditional American work ethic is almost completely dead.

"These kids today"--they just don't understand.

They don't understand that they have to start out somewhere, and work for low wages until they develop the skills that make them worth more.

The don't understand that they should work hard and be diligent because their employer won't respect them if they don't.

And they'll always be the first to be let go, and the last to receive the opportunities that somehow only open up for respected employees.

It's partly the fault of the Welfare state, which destroys initiative, and the government schools that teach kids to be and stay ignorant, and the broken families that have no wage-earner to provide a decent role model for growing children.

When you've just dropped out of high school because you're too slick to need an education, being "entitled" is a seductive lifestyle.

It's so easy not to work, so easy to take the government checks.

Until one day you discover that you're trapped. You have no marketable skills, no work history, no work ethic, and you're too old to compete with the bright-eyed kids fresh out of home school.

All the entitlements do is keep you poor. And the longer you live off them the harder it is to kick them.

We now have a whole generation that has drunk the Entitlement Lemonade and refuse to work for their living.

It's a small wonder jobs are going begging all over the U. S.

 

If I were still running the HotShots, I would be shot out of luck hiring crews to work the seasons, nobody in their right mind would take a job like that when they can make the same money in a year flipping burgers then they would make in a month working for me! The risk to reward just dropped through the bottom! Most of the companies I know are closing down operations and parking equipment! I guess I got out at just the right time, I would be sitting on a couple (6) million worth of equipment that's not generating income, while still having to pay licencing, insurance and permits which for me was around a hundred grand per season! Then there was the retainers for good crew, that was close to a hundred grand a year!

Thank the gods I kept one of the monster trucks for my own needs, nobody would have bought it, and few would have even known how to use it properly! Even today, if I wanted to, I could make around 10K per day with that rig! Nope, not going to start that again! I will leave it sitting right were it is and use it as needed locally, it can sit the rest of the season just fine!

 

Hey I make a damn good living flipping burgers and burning things for people Course I also have a half million invested into the burger flipping equipment and have worked more than a few 24 hour days to get where I am in life right now LOL! And NO I am not going to pay basic no skill burger flippers $20 per hour EVER. I will park all of the trucks and trailers and close up shop before that happens. A burger flipper that can work and run the whole set up and is making me $200-$300 per hour that is another matter entirely and I wil pay that highly skilled individual very well. And say hey you want to make the big money here then be like Paul!

 

I build and remodel homes. Had a guy want to partner up ,, didn't really want to, but figured what the hell ,,, I'm getting old and tired ,,if he took half the workload, it might give me a little break , he knew people and could bring work to the table.
Didn't take long to figure he wasn't as skilled as he should be,, result ::: me doing more work. Him having health problems and doctors appointments, result ::: me doing more work . Him missing 1 or 2 days a week and won't work weekends because he needs to " reset " ,, result ::: me doing more work- 7 days a week . End result::: hes gone , and I'm finishing our job , alone .
Tried finding help ,, one guy wanted 20-40 bucks an hour , depending on what he was doing ,,,,, idiot .
This story could go on forever ,,, this work takes a little more manual labor involved than burger flippers ,, but ,, it requires the same desire ,, to work. I don't know where all of this is going to end ,, but I doubt its going to end well.
I may just start taking small jobs I can do myself to make a few bucks to keep me going,, most everything is paid for, so I don't need much.
I'll tell you one thing tho ,,, if any of these kids out there are industrious and energetic, and willing to work,,,, they're going to own the world soon ,,, because its going to be left wide open for them .

 

Don't worry, the American Work Ethic will come back after those that suck the teat dry wind up dying of starvation.
The 4th turning is upon us.
Granted, it may be after we have passed.
But those who can, will. Those that can't, wither.
we are in for an interesting run over these next couple of decades.

 

We are in the same boat with trying to find new engineers. Kids was $80k right out of college with zero experience. Also finding qualified electricians and mechanics is hard too.