Peter Turchin says it can, anyway. Take the time to read this, it's tedious in spots, but there are a few things to stew over while thinking of readiness for the future. The Next Decade Could Be Even Worse
Yeah my father drummed that point (among many others) into my thick skull as young men are often afflicted with. He always said that if you wanted to see into the future, look to the past. I thought he was right then. I still think he was. No guesses here, he was a history buff.
I have been saying for years, if ya want to know the future look to the past. Wait! Didn't someone already say that??
Read 1984, George wrote the play book on this. History doesn't repeat, but it echos loud enough to kill those who go through life half asleep.
Just wondering here Chello ,,, have you seen the reports of Democrat supporters attacking Trump supporters ???? And ,,, how many videos have you seen of Trump supporters attacking the democrat supporters ???
I actually agree with Chell about the corruption in the Church. Its only really come to light in the past few years but its been around forever. and by corruption I mean- cover your butt the priests are coming... I don’t believe he meant it in a political way.
Rather striking, isn't it? How ol' chelly can find a way to bring a religious slam into an otherwise unrelated thread? Turchin cares not a whit for religion so far as ginning up equations explaining the cyclic nature of "civilizations." His postulations are not related to systemic beliefs. In any case, creating mathematical models that explain observations is no great feat; identifying the variables is the trick.
He seems spot-on to me. And, I think I have finally come to grips with this senile crook stealing the election. Screw it. The faster this country fails then the faster it falls and anything I can do to speed up that process I will do. There can be no reconciliation and no recovery as trust is completely gone for our government with the voting system compromised, all branches are corrupt from the top down. America is dead and Amerika is born. So, let it fail, bring on a world depression and world wars. We get what we voted for - oh! - that's right, our vote didn't count. Oh well...it matters not. Burn baby burn then let's rebuild...Well, maybe...I can hope. "The fundamental problems, he says, are a dark triad of social maladies: a bloated elite class, with too few elite jobs to go around; declining living standards among the general population; and a government that can’t cover its financial positions." Geez, one doesn't need to be a brainy mathematician to see this. LOL! "The problems are deep and structural—not the type that the tedious process of democratic change can fix in time to forestall mayhem." Wow. Shades of 1930's Germany. So, we need a dictator or King/Queen to sort things out by lopping off some heads? "The final trigger of impending collapse, Turchin says, tends to be state insolvency. At some point rising insecurity becomes expensive. The elites have to pacify unhappy citizens with handouts and freebies—and when these run out, they have to police dissent and oppress people." I think we will see this in the next 4 years. I sincerely believe we will. Furthermore, we know they have already used government agencies to do this to a certain extent: IRS targeting the Tea Party, FBI targeting Trump's 2016 campaign, etc. etc. etc. they simply will get more physical in the near future. "The notion that democracy finds its strength in its essential goodness and moral improvement over its rival systems is likewise fanciful. Instead, democratic societies flourish because they have a memory of being nearly obliterated by an external enemy. They avoided extinction only through collective action, and the memory of that collective action makes democratic politics easier to conduct in the present, Turchin said. “There is a very close correlation between adopting democratic institutions and having to fight a war for survival.” Hmm...never thought about this. It does make sense and now as the only Super Power we are tearing ourselves apart. All-in-all an excellent article and a wonderful Sunday morning read! We're doom whether by traditional history or data science (cliodynamics) but I think most of us need neither to see the writing in big letters on the wall. Thanks @ghrit
Eh. I'm not saying I'm super-stoked about Biden taking office. But there's zero denying that Trump is far from innocent when it comes to political corruption. Politics is a corrupt game. Once people realize this, we can start moving forwards. It sucks, but it's not going to change anytime soon. For those sycophants out there claiming Biden is the next America Jesus or Trump is an innocent man who has the best interests of the country at heart, I pity you.
The religious 'slam' is deservedly earned...though it has to be said that abuse and misuse of clerical authority is not confined to Catholicism...there are plenty of Protestant and indeed other religious faiths which enable and protect cleric sex abuse perpetrators. This is particularly so when the offences are considered a sin or moral lapse, rather than as criminal acts, requiring secular prosecution and punishment. As to the relevancy of the post to the thread topic, I would say, no less relevant than HK's culture wars snide snipe at the Dems...except that HK gets a free pass on his irrelevancy...(slamming Democrats is de rigueur in this place...as opposed to religion is more of a protected species unless it is Muslim of course) You evidently have not been reading Turchin's work very assiduously...Turchin not only cares about religion as a variable in his cliodynamic approach to scientific predictive history, he actually does ginn up his theory with 'equations' / models. Source: Peter Turchin via Easter, Early Christians, and Cliodynamics - Peter Turchin Do your homework! Turchin's research interests include work on the evolution of religion...an analysis of the past may predict future trends in the evolution of religion. http://seshatdatabank.info/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/MSP_Narratives_CurrDraft.pdf I'm not sure what you mean by systemic beliefs, as you have not defined that term in the context of cyclodynamics. Although I'm sure that Peter Turchin has little interest in the BS truth claims of the various flavours of religion infecting humanity; he is very much interested in the influences of social systems on different societal structures, of which religious institutions, and the influence on society by society's elites who do have religious commitments are but some. via: Cliodynamics is Not "Cyclical History" - Peter Turchin(emboldening Chello) Mathematical modelling to explain observations is, as you say, no great feat, what is novel, is applying it in an innovative way to mathematically divine future trends in societal change over time....a predictive history of the future. via: http://peterturchin.com/structural-demographic-theory/#:~:text=The theory represents complex human,nonlinear feedbacks (Figure 1). It is a concept anticipated decades ago by scientist and science fiction author, Isaac Asimov...and given literary form in his 'Foundation' trilogy of novels, in the form of 'Psychohistory': a fictional form of predictive modelling. Psychohistory (fictional) - Wikipedia Religious commitment, regardless of the relative supernatural truth claims believed by their adherents, would have to be one of those variables. Certainly, the elites that Turchin bangs on about are not loath to exploit religious sentiment to cement their dominant position in society's power structures...and the churches, temples, synagogues, mosques etc are not loath to harness their power as elites to cooperate with other political elites to further their own religious agenda...it is that corrupt symbiotic relationship which has helped keep non-elites in their subjugated, subordinate place in society....I think Turchin is aware of that structural dynamic and can postulate a future history where western societies will tend to become more secular; provided that there is progress towards societal stability.
No one in federal political office is innocent, but there are degrees of criminality and corruption. Biden & Co. are head&shoulders above Trump Co. in this. We are in for a rough ride with the Dems in charge. No way to effectively dispute that.
DJT the idjit lifted a very high bar to the corruption pole vault...let the lawsuits coming at TRump roll....including criminal trespass of the Whitehouse come January 2021.
It's funny how these liberal commie nutbags was ok with the governmental overreach under Obammy,,, but they want to cry crocodile tears over something Trump might do that is legal under presidential authority .
