Peak Oil- what it is and how it will impact your life

Best of archives

Probably the best Peak Oil website I know of is Matt Savinars "Life after the Oil Crash". He has recently archived his "Best of" news updates and articles. The link follows. There is a ton of good info there. Scroll down and you will find "Personal Preps" with some very good articles on what you can do to prepare for the coming depletion and it's societal impacts.
If you scroll to the bottom you will find two DVD's advertised. "Crude Impact" and "Crude Awakening". I have seen both and highly recommend the latter. "Crude Impact" is a very left leaning, big bad oil companies, one sided diatribe with only a small amount of useful information about peak oil. "Crude Awakening" is one of the best PO vids I have seen.
Also in the LATOC bookstore you can order "Strategic Relocation". I am currently reading it and am way impressed so far. I will do a review shortly.
Following is two articles from the archives that I thought were very good. Go to the link to read the rest when you have time. i skimmed through several and there is a lot of good and useful info there. MM


http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/bestof.html

 

Re: Peak Oil; what it is and how it will impact your life

Whiskey & Gunpowder
April 24, 2007
By Byron King
Pittsburgh, U.S.A.
Bakhtiari's Event of the Century
I HAVE RECEIVED more correspondence from Ali Samsam Bakhtiari of Tehran, Iran. I want to bring Dr. Bakhtiari's important work to the attention of the readers of Whiskey & Gunpowder.
Ali Samsam Bakhtiari
I wrote about Dr. Bakhtiari last August, when Whiskey & Gunpowder published a set of articles that I wrote about his views on Peak Oil. In "Nothing Like Business as Usual," I explained that Bakhtiari is a retired "senior energy expert," formerly employed by the National Iranian Oil Co. (NIOC) of Tehran, Iran. During his long career with NIOC, between 1971 and his mandatory retirement due to age in 2005, Bakhtiari held a number of important positions of immense trust and responsibility.
At the time he retired, Dr. Bakhtiari was attached to the director's office in the Corporate Planning Directorate of NIOC, specializing in issues related to the global oil, gas, and petrochemical industries. Bakhtiari is now an independent consultant with no official affiliation with NIOC. He spends his time writing and speaking to a worldwide audience on the subject of oil depletion in general, and Peak Oil in particular. Dr. Bakhtiari is far too humble to say it, but of course you may presume that his views on Peak Oil are published in Iran. This helps to understand certain strategic assumptions in the realm of energy that inform the Iranian governing bodies.
"An Era in Which We Know Nothing Much"
Last year, in an address to the senate of Australia, Bakhtiari stated that "I can see a range of $100-150 [per barrel of oil] not very far into the future." He amplified this statement as follows:
<DIR><DIR>"We are entering an era in which we know nothing much, where we have a brand-new set of rules...One of these new rules, in my opinion, is that there will be in the very near future nothing like business as usual. In my opinion, nothing is usual from now on for any of the countries involved. And the lower you are in the pile, the worse it is going to get."
</DIR></DIR>Four Phases of Decline
Dr. Bakhtiari views the future of worldwide oil extraction in terms of four phases of transition, or, as he puts it, T1, T2, T3, and T4. I described these four phases in greater detail in an article entitled "Peak Oil and Bakhtiari's 4 Phases of Transition."
In an e-mail to me that explained and amplified his views, Bakhtiari stated:
"The four transition periods (T1, T2, T3, and T4) will roughly span the 2006-2020 era. Each transition [will] cover, on average, three-four years...[T]he only transition we can see rather clearly (or rather, we hope to be able to comprehend) is T1. It is clear that T1 will witness the tilting of the 'oil demand' and 'oil supply' scales -- with the former dominant at the onset and the latter commanding toward the close (say, by 2009 or 2010)."
That is, Bakhtiari's view of T1 is that worldwide oil supplies will remain almost constant during this initial phase. New discoveries and production that is now coming on line will just about compensate for the production that is lost due to depletion. But T2, T3, and T4 will be, as Bakhtiari puts it, "more turbulent phases."
The Peak Has Been Reached
According to Dr. Bakhtiari, the world has now reached and passed the point of Peak Oil. Bakhtiari has recently published an essay entitled "The Century of Roots." Bakhtiari has reviewed the available evidence on world oil production and believes that world output peaked absolutely in 2006. Here is what he is saying:
<DIR><DIR>"After some 147 years of almost uninterrupted supply growth to a record output of some 81-82 million barrels/day [mb/d] in the summer of 2006, crude oil production has since entered its irreversible decline. This exceptional reversal alters the energy supply equation upon which life on our planet is based. It will come to place pressure upon the use of all other sources of energy -- be it natural gas, coal, nuclear power, and all types of sundry renewables, especially biofuels. It will eventually come to affect everything else under the sun."
</DIR></DIR>"Everything else under the sun"? That sounds like quite a lot, but Dr. Bakhtiari has done his background work, to include reviewing numerous models for oil extraction on a worldwide basis. In a paper delivered to an oil conference in Italy in March 2007, he concluded that in 2006, overall depletion subtracted about 3.5 mb/d of oil extraction from the daily global total of oil output (plus or minus 10%), and that a maximum of 2.5 mb/d of "new" oil production came on line, which includes new and expanded oil fields, as well as new projects in the Canadian tar sands areas. Thus, according to Bakhtiari, in 2006, depletion was greater, by more than 1 mb/d, than new discoveries and reserve growth, including oil produced from unconventional sources such as the tar sands.
Dr. Bakhtiari's conclusion, presented to the Italian conference in March, was that "the peak of global oil production has been reached." Bakhtiari now sees the world entering a phase of irreversible decline in daily oil output, moving down from the current 82mb/d toward daily oil extraction of only 55 mb/d by the year 2020. He discussed this with me in some comments he made last year, as well:
<DIR><DIR>"T1 has a very benign gradient of decline, and it will take months before one notices it at all. But T2 will be far steeper...My World Oil Production Capacity model has predicted that over the next 14 years, present global production of 82 million barrels per day will decrease by roughly 32%, down to around 55 million barrels per day by the year 2020."
</DIR></DIR>Event of the Century
Dr. Bakhtiari believes that this state of affairs, the peaking of global oil extraction, is truly the "event of the century," which he explains thus:
<DIR><DIR>"The 21st century is still young, as there are another 93 years to go. So it might sound overambitious to claim that 'The Event of the Century' is already behind us. But I'll gladly take the risk, for I seriously believe that the peaking of the global production of crude oil -- commonly know as 'Peak Oil' -- has occurred in 2006 and will be 'The Event' bound to dominate the history of the 21st century: one of those 'historical inflection points,' which abruptly change fundamentals in the course of world history. I cannot foresee any other event coming to eclipse Peak Oil, not even the world wars which might be unleashed in the Peak's aftermath and further fueled by widespread resource scarcity. Unless, of course, humanity decides upon collective suicide with the massive use of weapons of mass destruction; but such an annihilating event would spell the word 'end' for most, if not all, of mankind."
</DIR></DIR>Dr. Bakhtiari believes that almost all of what are considered to be major current trends of humanity will be altered by Peak Oil. Here is what he says about one key trend, the future of population growth:
<DIR><DIR>"Take, for example, population. In the 'Post Peak' era, population growth will gradually decrease before becoming stagnant (following crude oil) and passing a Peak of its own -- my early projections show a 'population peak' occurring some time around 2025 (a 20-year lag respective to oil) at a global level of around 7.5-8.0 billion people. There is little doubt that crude oil is our world's 'master domino': when it thrives, all other dominoes flourish, and when it tumbles, it does topple all of the others too. Thus, interestingly, 'Peak Oil' will not usher in a revolution, but rather an evolution 'en sense contraire' ('in reverse gear')."
</DIR></DIR>"Every Nook and Cranny"
Dr. Bakhtiari has this to say about both the future, as well as the nature of mankind:
"Peak Oil', however, is now in the past, and we are presently left facing the 'Post Peak' era. There is little doubt that in this brand-new period, massive changes are bound to occur. The usage of relatively cheap crude oil has invaded every nook and cranny of our modern world economy -- sometimes without the wasteful invasion being fully realized. Moreover, the ubiquitous oil products have created addictions (especially in the transport sector) which will be extremely difficult to uproot. And not only is the addiction to motorcars common throughout the developed world, it has also begun making deep inroads in China, Russia, and even India: a very dangerous development, indeed, because as American physician and poet Oliver Wendell Holmes [1809-1894] judiciously remarked:
'Man's mind, once stretched by a new idea, never regains its original dimensions'"
Mortal Danger
Dr. Bakhtiari continues on a profound pathway, and I will simply quote him at length:
<DIR><DIR>"In 'Post Peak,' all of our systems of habits are in mortal danger. Due to the relative cheapness of crude oil (in relation to other, more expensive daily needs), people don't exactly realize the pivotal role played by its products in their daily routines -- as these products have invaded every nook and cranny of our modern life. It is only when the brakes will be pulled (as they inevitably will have to be) that the general public will come to gradually realize the critical importance of 'black gold' -- which currently provides no less than two-fifths of world energy -- and of 'energy' in general in their living habits.
"Thus, at present, the global masses seem totally unprepared for the two shocks which will inevitably occur in 'Post Peak.' On the one hand, no major institution or medium is willing to inform them seriously on the not-so-palatable consequences of 'Post Peak'; and, on other hand, specialized institutions (such as the International Energy Agency [IEA], the Energy Information Administration [EIA] and OPEC) as well as some major energy consultancies (e.g., the Cambridge Energy Research Associates and the Edinburgh-based Wood Mackenzie research outfit) will go on denying 'Peak Oil' by issuing rosy future oil output predictions.
"So that the twin shocks are now inevitable on a global scale, as there is no time left to prepare public opinion for 'Post Peak' sequels. The shocks will first surprise, then jilt, and finally entangle swaths of people worldwide. Those better prepared will be less inclined to react in a disorderly way and panic when the shocking truth will be unveiled."
</DIR></DIR>Two Main Types of Shock
Dr. Bakhtiari delves into the state of preparation of major nations and populations for what is about to ensue and concludes as follows:
<DIR><DIR>"In the large majority of countries, no one has prepared (or wanted to prepare) the general public to the historical 'Peak Oil' event and to its momentous consequence in their daily lives. Thus, most probably, the popular masses will be directly exposed to two main types of shock:
</DIR></DIR>A psychological shock.
<DIR><DIR>"Due to the benign decline gradient in crude oil production during the early 'Post Peak' period -- only 3 mb/d over the first transition period spanning 2007-2010 -- the material shock will not pose insoluble problems and accommodation will prove possible with minimal gradual pain. Moreover, sizeable amounts of wastage in most developed societies will provide a welcome cushion for the initial cuts to be made.
"Not so for the psychological shock. This shock, in stark contrast, will be electric and abrupt. Stress, fear, depression, despairs, and nightmares will be the order of the day -- as people come to face the not-so-palatable facets of 'Post Peak.' When confronted with this series of unknowns, with the trauma of change, people will try to protect themselves by automatically reverting to their past, to the known, to what they believe to be "real and true" -- in a word, to their reassuring 'roots'"
</DIR></DIR>The Need to Cope and Adapt
Dr. Bakhtiari has more to say on Peak Oil and the future of mankind, and we will discuss his views in future articles in Whiskey & Gunpowder. But this recent perspective that we are past Peak Oil, based on Dr. Bakhtiari's analysis of oil data from 2006, is entirely consistent with what he told me last year. In previous correspondence, Dr. Bakhtiari stated to me that the "gradation in decline (between T1, T2, T3, and T4) is a genuine blessing for those having to cope and adapt."
I noted in my articles last year that, indeed, any gradation that becomes evident, and which leads to an understanding of the dire implications of Peak Oil, is a blessing. But this is so only if informed people and the industrial and political policymakers of the world actually take Peak Oil as a serious matter and set policy accordingly. Will this happen? Is Peak Oil yet a topic of discussion among the high and mighty, as well as a matter of individual and local concern? Hardly, although I believe that Peak Oil is certainly a completely valid investment paradigm. Aside from merely making money, however, there is much more to accomplish, and the time is growing short.
When it comes to his effort to explain Peak Oil to a worldwide audience, Dr. Bakhtiari is a prophet. (A humble prophet, I should add. He is embarrassed when I say such things about him.) But Bakhtiari has both predicted something, and given a 14-year time frame for its occurrence. On this score, he is envisioning the future.
Dr. Bakhtiari's efforts, his writings, and his work embody the old saying that "Time takes no holiday." Once again, as with my previous articles, allow me to end by expressing my deepest thanks to Dr. Bakhtiari for sharing his thoughts with me and trusting that I will present them to our readership at Whiskey & Gunpowder, and wherever they go from there. Also, once again, I offer the words of the great Dante Alighieri, who wrote in Purgatorio, Canto III, "It is the wisest who grieve most at the loss of time."
Until we meet again...
Byron W. King

 

Re: Peak Oil; what it is and how it will impact your life

The Most Important Thing You Don't Know About "Peak Oil"<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" />
“When nothing happens for a long time, people begin to assume that nothing ever happens. But, sooner or later, something always happens.” -- Steven Lagavulin
There's an aspect to the concept of "Peak Oil" which I don't believe is sufficiently grasped by people following the subject. It's the understanding that the most dangerous aspect we face is not really the state of the resource itself--the actual "Peak" dates or depletion rates, or any of the physical realities of oil supply/demand--but rather the reaction in the oil markets upon realization that these issues are no longer even important.
For instance, a few days ago I referenced the article GlobalCorp, because I felt Michael C. Ruppert did a fantastic job 'connecting the dots' of world/politcal events occurring over just the past few months. What he showed is that, regardless of whether Peak Oil has any reality to it or not, what is important now is that the powers of the world are absolutely steering the course of the planet by this star. As such, the events now destined to unfold over just the next year or so are acquiring a momentum of their own, setting us on an intractable course of global conflict and warfare. This is the reality, as I see it, of what is happening right now, regardless of when any theoretical "Peak Year" may have been reached.
Should the oil markets themselves begin to 'connect these dots', then all our lives are going to be impacted violently and immediately. The commodity traders for various interested firms live solely by anticipating conditions and events, not by debating them and verifying them. The old mantra is, you "buy the rumor, sell the news". This is the reason you'll never see "Peak Oil" covered by a respected media outlet. Because as soon as it is recognized that for all practical purposes the situation is already upon us, then a fast and viscious "resource grab" will be initiated. The price of oil in the markets will begin to rise dramatically. This will initiate a circular hedging / hording mentality in large end-users, governments, and multi-nationals. This will then have a myriad of devastating effects, but all average Joe Consumer is going to notice is that the price at the pump will experience a brief and dramatic blip upward, gas lines will form for a short time at the corner-stations, and then suddenly the corner gas-stations will go dry altogether...perhaps getting a few sporadic deliveries, but more likely simply for good. Gasoline will not be available to individual drivers, as precedence is given to heating oil, critical government and commercial uses, public transportation, transport of food and goods, etc. How the situation unfolds after that you can imagine just as well as I....
If this scenario sounds over-dramatic, keep in mind that what I'm talking about is a dawning recognition of something that many analysts have already come to realize: that the "oil grab" is in fact already on, that it's not a temporary 'bottleneck' or passing 'shock', and that the losers in this game will not survive. A global game of 'blind man's bluff' is underway, with all the players pleading ignorance of the issue for as long as possible so they can get their pieces in place...all the while anxiously watching for the first itchy-trigger finger that's going to set the whole thing off.
This is the reason I highlighted Michael Ruppert's last article. I believe that just as he is stating, the debate over "Peak Oil" itself is already over. It no longer matters whether it is proven or disproven, because there isn't time left to do either. Events in the world are revealing to us the only truth that matters: that a desperate resource war is emergent, one that will not be won by trade sanctions, blustering, or corporate bargaining. This is the only issue which should now be under scrutiny by those who strive to stay "ahead of the curve". No one questions why the U.S. is occupying the Middle-East: the Administration is there for the oil. But the true gravity of the situation is only scarcely beginning to come to light. The 'markets' have already accepted the long-term "bull market" in oil prices due to increasing demand. What they don't accept yet (or understand) is the mounting "supply" problem. When this begins to dawn on them, and it could absolutely happen as quickly as within the next few months, then seemingly overnight the world will start to come apart at the seams. Keep in mind that we're not talking about the acceptance of oil depletion among the 'general public'; the individuals comprising 'the oil markets' are people who follow the industry intimately, and who know all the latest news and rumors. They know about (quote/unquote) "Peak Oil". What they have not quite done is to connect all the dots....
The world powers are positioning themselves for war. The war is over who can take the most oil. If you don't recognize this, then I urge you to read over Ruppert's article and get a sense for the types of events and stories which form the "dots" he has been connecting. Then begin paying close attention to world news (not "politics", but real events). Begin to discern what the various strategic actions being taken by the countries of the world indicate. Perhaps I am wrong. Maybe I've misread the situation. Verify everything for yourself.
I also want to very sincerely relate that I am not saying any of this to stir up fear or anxiety in anyone. In truth, nothing about the future can be known with certainty. What I am trying to do is to communicate my own recognition that the time for action is now upon us. We can no longer debate who's right and who's wrong. We can no longer hope for what the next election might bring. We can't assume that somehow a 'gradual transition' will be effected, because it is never going to happen that way. Certainly there will be efforts among the global powers to calm the markets in various ways...perhaps some of these will ameliorate matters. But ultimately, in our own lives, just as on the world stage, whoever does not act now will soon find they have already lost the game.
So what action should be taken? What can anyone do to confront the course of events? Sadly, I don't have the answers. But I am trying to work things out. I believe that the only hope of changing things is by building a consensus among people. This needs to happen very quickly, and it will only happen when people are no longer content to just grumble about things, comfortable in the assumption that nothing is going to happen...at least, not anytime soon...and certainly not today....
Also, those who secretly long for the coming collapse will be in for a shock. The initial oil shortage, when it does come, will certainly be a serious inconvenience, but the events which proceed after that are going to humble us all to the core.
Admittedly, I don't believe that any one of us can voluntarily change events of this magnitude...but I do think we have an obligation to live as though we can.
Posted by Steven Lagavulin on March 16, 2005 | Permalink

 

Interesting article

http://articles.chicagotribune.com/...90545_1_sea-treaty-arctic-ocean-arctic-energy

This is very interesting. The Russians admitting that oil production will soon drop "Drastically",
and laying claim to oil & gas under the artic ice cap that we are protesting. Setting the stage for future oil wars?

ST. PETERSBURG, Russia — A new Klondike may be waiting at the top of the world, where
geologists believe a quarter of the globe's undiscovered oil and natural gas lies trapped within the
rock strata underneath the ice-encased Arctic Ocean.

It's a trove of energy wealth that sits unowned and unexplored, a bonanza being readied for a
rush of claims thanks to climate change. Global warming is steadily wearing away the polar cap,
scientists say, making the advent of Arctic energy exploration increasingly likely.

Inside a dingy, four-story building in the heart of St. Petersburg, a team of scientists is working
feverishly to prove that a large chunk of that energy is rightfully Russia's.

If geologists at the Russian Research Institute for Ocean Geology and Mineral Resources are
right, the Kremlin could add as many as 10 billion tons of Arctic oil and natural gas to reserves
that already make Russia one of the world's most formidable energy powerhouses.

The Arctic's potential storehouse of oil and gas likely won't be tapped for decades. But Moscow is
looking ahead to a time when depleted oil and natural gas fields will force energy suppliers to
scour for new hydrocarbon sources, even if they're under the polar ice cap.

"Experts say that after 2016, oil production will drop tremendously," said Anatoly Opekunov, the
institute's deputy director. "Every country, including Russia and the U.S., is thinking about this."
Russia's eagerness to secure the rights to Arctic energy worries many policymakers in
Washington, who argue that the U.S. is powerless to intervene while it remains mired in a 13-
year debate over ratification of a United Nations treaty governing international maritime rights.
That pact, the Law of the Sea Treaty, is viewed by many as the world's primary means of settling
disputes over exploitation rights and navigational routes in international waters. Russia and 152
other nations have ratified the treaty.

U.S. lawmakers who oppose the treaty have held up its ratification in Congress since 1994,
arguing that signing on to the pact cedes too much power to the UN. Proponents of the treaty
say if the U.S. doesn't ratify it, Russia's bid for the Arctic's energy wealth will go unchallenged.
"Russia has, under the terms of the treaty, laid claim to stretches of the Arctic Ocean, hoping to
lock up potential oil and gas reserves which could become more accessible as climate change
shrinks the polar ice cap," said Sen. Richard Lugar (R-Ind.) in a statement last month. "Unless
the U.S. ratifies the treaty, Moscow will be able to press its claims without an American at the
table."

Environmentalists, who have opposed oil exploration in Arctic regions, see the prospect of a
future oil rush as a twisted result of governmental failure to address climate change.

"Global warming and the catastrophes it causes should be our priority," said Irina Rudaya, a
researcher at Bellona, a Norwegian environmental watchdog. "It's high time we start thinking
about the environmental consequences of our actions, and about relying on alternative fuel
sources.

"But Russia," she adds, "only thinks about potential revenue, and about being No. 1 in the oil and
gas market."
Said Bruce Nilles, a lawyer who leads the Sierra Club's Midwest Clean Air Campaign, "As long as
we have weaker fuel-efficiency standards than China, we're going to be faced with ridiculous ideas
like this."

'Hot topic' for oil industry

It was once thought that the ice cap would keep the Arctic Ocean's billions of tons of oil and
natural gas forever entombed. Global warming, however, is shearing off sections of the ice cap at
a rate of 9 percent each decade, kindling interest among oil majors in the world's last energy
frontier.

"Within technical oil industry circles, the Arctic is becoming a hot topic," analysts Neil McMahon
and Oswald Clint wrote in a report last month by Bernstein Research, a U.S. investment analysis
firm. "While widespread hydrocarbon production is some time away, an initial foray by the [oil]
majors into Arctic waters for exploration purposes is much more realistic in the near term."
In the quest for Arctic energy, Russia is making sure it's not left behind.

Russia already is home to the world's largest storehouse of natural gas reserves and is the world's
second-leading oil producer behind Saudi Arabia. Its willingness to use that energy clout as
political leverage against the West has become a hallmark of Kremlin foreign policy -- and a
worrisome sign for many European leaders who argue that their countries have grown
overdependent on Russian oil and natural gas.

The Kremlin's Arctic claim involves a 463,222-square-mile triangle of ocean that stretches from
the North Pole to waters above east Siberia and Russia's Chukotka Peninsula. That section of the
Arctic lies beyond Russia's economic jurisdiction, which is defined by the Law of the Sea Treaty as
all waters within 200 miles of a country's coastline.

 

Re: Peak Oil; what it is and how it will impact your life

I just ordered and recieved the DVD "Crude Awakening" a couple of weeks ago and it is the best Peak Oil video I have seen. I highly recommend getting it, especially if you want to share it with others who either don't know about Peak Oil or who are skeptical. it really lays it out for all to see.
It is getting some good reviews.MM



Folks,
"A Crude Awakening" has received some great reviews lately. In a review posted at Treehugger.com a few days ago, Warren Mclaren wrote as follows, emphasis added:

The point of A Crude Awakening seems to be like that of an alarm clock. It’s function is wake people up. To rouse them from their slumber. If you haven’t encountered this information anywhere else then it will do the trick. It lays out the detail pretty clearly, mostly through interviews with oil industry representatives interspersed with lots of filmwork reminiscent of the Koyaanisqatsi style movies. Statistics are dispensed incessantly by the speakers, who are, for the most part, eloquent in their depiction of the issues. This is an incredibly important movie, though not a great one. There is no Michael Moore or Al Gore fronting the show to provide it a more personal narrative. But it might be that in it’s starkness the message has more impact.
It is vital that as many people see this film as saw An Inconvenient Truth. The problem is more tangible. Not being able to drive or fly is something more of us can readily relate to. Changing seasons and drowning polar bears, is unfortunately for many, a tad too esoteric. As the movie’s many speakers point out politicians and governments are rarely proactive, rather reactive. And currently they aren’t getting phone calls from their voters to act on this crucial issue.
In awaking viewers to a future without oil, A Crude Awakening, is highly effective.
​

I'm in the film and I sell it at LATOC so obviously I'm a bit biased but the general consensus among people who've seen it is that it's the one Peak Oil documentary that will convince your family, friends, neighbors, etc. to take this stuff seriously. There are several Peak Oil documentaries, all very well done, but none pack anywhere near the emotional punch A Crude Awakening packs. While it's not perfect, it's the only documentary that migt actually get your friends and family off their lazy asses and into preparing for what's coming.
You can find out more about the film, watch trailers, purchase a copy, etc. over at the LATOC Store.
Best,
Matt

 

Re: Peak Oil; what it is and how it will impact your life

(To open any of the embedded links in a new window just right click and select "open in a new window.")

Some major developments in the world of "Peak Oil" happened last week. The UK Independent, Britain's most respected newspaper, ran a front page article on the issue entitled ";A World Without Oil" which got a headline link from Matt Drudge. FWIW, a significant portion of the article appears to have been taken, without attribution or a link, from the front page of LATOC. (Not that I mind.)
This was followed up by a very honest article in Business Week entitled ";From Peak Oil to a New Dark Age?" and then a well-publicized speech by Alan Greenspan about the threat posed by a drop in Mexico's oil production.
The implications of all this were the topic of an article from Whiskey and Gunpowder entitled ";The Day Peak Oil Became a Household Word."
I'm ambivalent as to whether all this recent press is a good thing. I'm sure it will be good for site traffic at LATOC but should the public or the markets in the aggregate "get" this anytime soon then my personal preparation plans will be pretty much shot to hell. As far as the implications of this publicity for your personal preparation plans, I suppose some of it might help you convince your relatives or neighbors of the need to begin preparing but my guess is nothing short of actual gasoline shortages will do that.

Matt Savinar will be on "Coast to Coast" Saturday night speaking about peak oil.

Folks,
I'll be on Coast to Coast AM with Art Bell this Saturday June 23rd from 10:00 to 11:00 PM pacific time to discuss Peak Oil. You can find a station in your area that broadcasts the show by going to the following link:
http://www.coasttocoastam.com/info/wheretolisten.html

Best,
Matt

 

So much for the much vaunted Canadian tar sands

An inconvenient Swede
Andrew Nikiforuk
From the October 9-22, 2006 issue of Canadian Business magazine
Kjell Aleklett, a perky and persuasive physicist at Uppsala University, talks with characteristic Swedish candour. As president of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil, he jokes that all the big "strawberries" in the world's oilfields have been thoroughly picked over. ("Peak oil" just means the end of cheap oil.) Fifty years ago, the world burned four billion barrels of oil a year and happily discovered lots of big berry patches — 30 billion barrels a year. Today, those figures are exactly reversed, which goes a long way toward explaining volatile oil prices and Sweden's determined plan to get off fossil fuels by 2020. "Money is not running the world," the jaunty global player likes to say during his talks. "Money is used to buy energy." Right.
Aleklett, whose first name (I kid you not) rhymes with Shell, can also be cheeky. Last year, for example, he told the U.S. House Subcommittee on Energy and Air Quality that the American people — just 5% of the world's population — shouldn't be gobbling up 25% of the world's oil production, because peak oil will probably start to hobble most economies by 2010. Aleklett spelled out another inconvenient truth: since 1900, not one country in the world has increased its GDP without a corresponding increase in oil consumption. He ended his talk by reminding the Yanks that Canada's fabulous and much-lauded oilsands was no lifesaver. Don't count on it, he said.
The Swede, who recently gave his berry-and-oil talk to the international Pulp and Paper Products Council in Vancouver, later backed up his contrarian conclusion with a 46-page report entitled A Crash Program Scenario for the Canadian Oil Sands Industry. The provocative analysis, all based on Canadian industry and government data, looks at the maximum that companies could squeeze out of the tarry sands in the near future, and asks whether this boreal smashing exercise would actually ease prices at global gas pumps.
Here's his answer: Right now, the oilsands produce a little more than a million barrels a day for a global market with an 84-million-barrel-per-day addiction. In the sands, the big berries — just 20% of the resource — consist of a few large open-pit mines, while most of the small berries consist of in situ or steam-the-oil-out-of-the-ground projects. Aleklett and two colleagues concluded that Canadians could shovel and steam a full 3.6 million barrels per day by 2018, but not without self-inducing some bad migraines.
The first headache is natural gas. It takes 1,000 cubic feet of natural gas to produce one barrel of bitumen; the oilsands now consume 4% of the nation's gas supply. Under a crash program, that tally jumps to 16% by 2018, and that would max out the gas market: "The supply of natural gas in North America is not adequate to support a future Canadian oilsands industry with today's dependence on natural gas." If Canada doesn't build nuclear power plants for in situ projects, the place will simply run out of affordable fuel, says Aleklett.
Nor will a crash program in the sands ever make up for the fact that, with the exception of ultra-deep offshore fields, 54 of the world's 65 oil-producing nations have passed peak production. Aleklett doesn't think the sands will even offset "the combined decline from crude oil production of the North Sea and Canada's conventional crude oil production."
At end of the paper, he asked more plucky questions: Given that in situ production exploits small berries but burns energy big-time, how effective will future projects perform in "reservoirs of lower quality"? And is it realistic to include the construction of nuclear facilities into production forecasts?
No one, of course, has a good answer to such Swedish impertinence. In a recent e-mail, Aleklett noted that his report garnered "no response" from industry or the Alberta government. Given that accelerated production won't be a lifesaver for peak oil, I asked Aleklett how the resource should be exploited — a subject of much national debate. Aleklett e-mailed back more common sense: "As the tar sands have a limited influence on peak oil, Canada should try to make the development as environmentally sound as possible." In other words: go slow.

 

Peak Oil Ramifications

The fight for the world's food

Population is growing. Supply is falling. Prices are rising. What will be the cost to the planet's poorest?
By Daniel Howden

Published: 23 June 2007

Most people in Britain won't have noticed. On the supermarket shelves the signs are still subtle. But the onset of a major change will be sitting in front of many people this morning in their breakfast bowl. The price of cereals in this country has jumped by 12 per cent in the past year. And the cost of milk on the global market has leapt by nearly 60 per cent. In short we may be reaching the end of cheap food.

For those of us who have grown up in post-war Britain food prices have gone only one way, and that is down. Sixty years ago an average British family spent more than one-third of its income on food. Today, that figure has dropped to one-tenth. But for the first time in generations agricultural commodity prices are surging with what analysts warn will be unpredictable consequences.

Like any other self-respecting trend this one now has its own name: agflation. Beneath this harmless-sounding piece of jargon - the conflation of agriculture and inflation - lie two main drivers that suggest that cheap food is about to become a thing of the past. Agflation, to those that believe that it is really happening, is an increase in the price of food that occurs as a result of increased demand from human consumption and the diversion of crops into usage as an alternative energy resource.
On the one hand the growing affluence of millions of people in China and India is creating a surge in demand for food - the rising populations are not content with their parents' diet and demand more meat. On the other, is the use of food crops as a source of energy in place of oil, the so-called bio-fuels boom.

As these two forces combine they are setting off warning bells around the world.
Rice prices are climbing worldwide. Butter prices in Europe have spiked by 40 per cent in the past year. Wheat futures are trading at their highest level for a decade. Global soybean prices have risen by a half. Pork prices in China are up 20 per cent on last year and the food price index in India was up by 11 per cent year on year. In Mexico there have been riots in response to a 60 per cent rise in the cost of tortillas.

It has even revived discussion of the work of the 18th-century British thinker Robert Malthus. He predicted that the growth of the world's population would outstrip its ability to produce food, leading to mass starvation.

So far in Britain we have been insulated from the early effects of these price rises by the competitive nature of our retail system. But the supermarkets cannot shield us for long. The European Commission no longer has reserves to help cushion its citizens. Its mountains of unsold butter and meat and its lake of powdered milk have disappeared after reforms to the Common Agricultural Policy.

Then there is corn. While relatively little corn is eaten directly it is of pivotal importance to the food economy as so much of it is consumed indirectly. The milk, eggs, cheese, butter, chicken, beef, ice cream and yoghurt in the average fridge is all produced using corn and the price of every one of these is influenced by the price of corn. In effect, our fridges are full of corn.

In the past 12 months the global corn price has doubled. The constant aim of agriculture is to produce enough food to carry us over to the next harvest. In six of the past seven years, we have used more grain worldwide than we have produced. As a result world grain reserves - or carryover stocks - have dwindled to 57 days. This is the lowest level of grain reserves in 34 years.

The reason for the price surge is the wholesale diversion of grain crops into the production of ethanol. Thirty per cent of next year's grain harvest in the US will go straight to an ethanol distillery. As the US supplies more than two-thirds of the world's grain imports this unprecedented move will affect food prices everywhere. In Europe farmers are switching en masse to fuel crops to meet the EU requirement that bio-fuels account for 20 per cent of the energy mix.

Ethanol is almost universally popular with politicians as it allows them to tell voters to keep on motoring, while bio-fuels will fix the problem of harmful greenhouse gas emissions. But bio-fuels are not a green panacea, as the influential economist Lester Brown from the Earth Policy Institute explained in a briefing to the US Senate last week. He said: "The stage is now set for direct competition for grain between the 800 million people who own automobiles, and the world's 2 billion poorest people."

Already there are signs that the food economy is merging with the fuel economy. The ethanol boom has seen sugar prices track oil prices and now the same is set to happen with grain, Mr Brown argues. "As the price of oil climbs so will the price of food," he says. "If oil jumps from $60 a barrel to $80, you can bet that your supermarket bills will also go up."

In the developed world this could mean a change of lifestyle. Elsewhere it could cost lives. Soaring food prices have already sparked riots in poor countries that depend on grain imports. More will follow. After decades of decline in the number of starving people worldwide the numbers are starting to rise. The UN lists 34 countries as needing food aid. Since feeding programmes tend to have fixed budgets, a doubling in the price of grain halves food aid.

Anger boiled over this week as Jean Ziegler, the UN special rapporteur on the right to food, accused the US and EU of "total hypocrisy" for promoting ethanol production in order to reduce their dependence on imported oil. He said producing ethanol instead of food would condemn hundreds of thousands of people to death from hunger.
Population and starvation

* Robert Thomas Malthus was a political economist who shot to prominence in late 18th century Britain. His Essay on the Principle of Population influenced generations of thinkers with its prediction that the world's population would outgrow its food supply, prompting starvation on an epic scale. "The power of population is so superior to the power of the earth to produce subsistence for man, that premature death must in some shape or other visit the human race," he wrote. "Gigantic inevitable famine stalks in the rear." But Malthus predicted disaster to strike in the mid-19th century.

 

Re: Peak Oil; what it is and how it will impact your life

Oil prices: You ain't seen nuthin' yet

A couple of data points about oil.

The Wall Street Journal reports today that world oil demand is growing twice as fast as last year.

The International Energy Agency, which monitors oil markets on behalf of industrialized nations, is forecasting average global oil demand of 86.1 million barrels a day this year, up 2 percent from last year. That is twice as fast as the 0.9% growth recorded in 2006, compared with 2005.
Demand is expected to accelerate further in the fourth quarter to 88 million barrels a day, an unprecedented quarterly volume and up 2.6 million barrels a day from the year-earlier period. In the second quarter, global oil demand already has risen at a 1.7% rate, more than double the 0.8% a year ago, according to forecasts and data compiled by the IEA.
​

Where's the demand coming from? All over, but especially China.

The China Daily reports:

In the first five months this year, China's net oil imports roared to 65.83 million tons, an increase of 11.5 percent from the same period last year. At the same time, China produced 77.51 million tons of oil, a 1.7 percent rise year-on-year.
Customs statistics show that from January to May, China imported 67.43 million tons of crude oil, up 9.6 percent year-on-year. Meanwhile, it exported 1.6 million tons, down 36.6 percent.
​

And people think the price of gasoline is high now.

 

Re: Peak Oil; what it is and how it will impact your life

World: Clock Ticking On Global Oil Supply

By Roman Kupchinsky

<TABLE style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN-RIGHT: 5px" cellSpacing=0 width=220><TBODY><TR><TD></TD></TR><TR><TD class=caption>Russian oil wells will be pumping air in 23 years, according to BP (file photo)</TD></TR><TR><TD class=caption>(TASS)</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>June 19, 2007 (RFE/RL) -- The debate over how much readily accessible oil remains on Earth has been revived with the release of a new report that suggests there is enough to last about 40 years.



But critics say British Petroleum's 2007 "Statistical Review Of World Energy," released this month, is far too optimistic.

In 2003, a team of scientists from Sweden's University of Uppsala presented evidence that purported to prove that the world's oil reserves are up to 80 percent less than predicted. They claim that production levels will peak by 2013.

Colin Campbell, a former chief geologist and vice president of BP, disagrees with the company's latest oil-reserve estimates. He recently explained in the "Independent" that he believes the production of regular oil, the kind which is easy and cheap to extract, peaked in 2005. By his estimates oil will become a rare commodity by 2011.

And Campbell confesses that he mistrusts figures provided by oil companies. He told the "Independent" in a recent article that, "When I was the boss of an oil company I would never tell the truth. It's not part of the game."

Saudi And Russian Reserves

Estimates of proven oil reserves in the Middle East have befuddled analysts for years because the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has kept estimates of its reserves a state secret.

BP estimates of countries' oil reserves: Iran: 86.7 years
Kazakhstan: 76.5<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" />
Saudi Arabia: 66.7
Azerbaijan: 29.3
Russia: 22.3 years
India: 19.3
United States: 12
China: 12
Turkmenistan: 9.2
United Kingdom: 6.5



Nevertheless, the BP report states that by the end of 2006, Saudi Arabia had reserves of 264.3 billion barrels, or almost 30 percent of the world's reserves.

Matthew Simmons, author of "Twilight In The Desert -- The Coming Saudi Oil Shock And The World Economy," published in 2005, believes that the Saudis are overstating the size of their reserves. Simmons writes: "Saudi Arabian production is at or very near its peak sustainable volume (if it did not peak almost 25 years ago) and is likely to go into decline in the very foreseeable future."

Simmons based his analysis on technical documents about the kingdom's seven giant oil fields that have been the workhorses of Saudi oil production for decades.

Fatih Birol, the chief economist of the International Energy Agency admitted in 2004 that Saudi production was "about flat."

Russian oil reserves are also a state secret. BP reported that by the end of 2006 Russia's proven oil reserves were 79.5 billion, or 6.6 percent of the world's total.

Estimates of Russian oil reserves keep increasing almost yearly. In 2004 BP's survey listed them to be 69.1 billion barrels, up from 45 billion in 2001. Some oil auditing firms believe that the reserves are much greater -- between 150 billion barrels and 200 billion barrels.

Dry Holes

Part of the problem of predicting how long oil will be readily available is the tremendous pressure placed on oil companies by shareholders to meet demand.

In January 2004 Royal Dutch Shell, the third-largest oil company in the world, shocked energy markets around the globe by announcing that its proven oil reserves were overstated by 23 percent.

At the time Shell was falling behind its competition in new oil-field discoveries and in acquiring other oil companies and their reserves. That year, two-thirds of Shell's most promising wells had been determined to be dry holes, and in an apparent attempt to maintain its market position the company overstated its proven reserves.

Accurate information is key at a time when many states are seeking to cut their growing consumption of oil in order to stave off global warming and reduce their dependence on foreign producers.

And the stakes are high, as once oil consumption overtakes production, an unprepared world faces a volatile situation.


Related Stories About World:
Islam Scholar Rejects 'Clash Of Civilizations' Theory
Nuclear-Power Push Eroding Nonproliferation Efforts, Expert Says
Muslim Liberals Steer Course Between Autocrats And Theocrats
U.S. Report Decries 'Modern-Day Slavery'
Arms Trade Up By One-Third In 10 Years
Expert Sees Little New In G8 Climate Agreement

Other Articles Written By Roman Kupchinsky:

BP-TNK, Gazprom, And The Kovytka Gas Field
Gazprom Hones Its Strategy On Ukraine
Kyiv Assassination Leaves Trail Of Intrigue
Vision Of Global Gas Cartel Gains Clarity
EU's Pipeline Dream Threatened
Tymoshenko Discusses EU, Energy In Washington
Origins Of Putin's 'Revolutionary Development' A Mystery
Could Gazprom Become 'Coalprom'?
'Gas OPEC' Moves Closer To Becoming Reality
Putin Proposes Greater Pipeline Cooperation

 

Re: Peak Oil; what it is and how it will impact your life

This is not a post.


http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2d97d75a-2e0c-11dc-821c-0000779fd2ac.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/ma...WAVCBQYIV0?xml=/money/2007/07/10/cnoil110.xml

 

Re: Peak Oil; what it is and how it will impact your life

 

Re: Peak Oil; what it is and how it will impact your life

 

Re: Peak Oil; what it is and how it will impact your life

My only comment is this;

When I, and others, first started trying to wake people up to this threat we were laughed off of many boards as crazy conspiracy theory nuts.

Remember this, it is only a theory until it becomes a fact, but then of course, it's too late to do anything about it.

 

Re: Peak Oil; what it is and how it will impact your life

I have heard this theory many times. Alex Jones hawks the "it's a NWO conspiracy" line.
I don't know how else to say it. This is not true. As much as people want to believe it it just is not the case.

Where are all these billions of barrels of oil that "they" are hiding? I am in the business and I see everyday, the number of rigs drilling around the world is at the highest level in years. We are drilling as fast as we can. in every field we can, all over the world. I see the trucks hauling the oil away that we are furiously pumping out of the ground. Where does it go?
The best place to store oil is in the ground. If you want to hoard billions of barrels of oil to drive up the price you simply leave it in the ground.
You don't store it in tanks at refineries where a lightning strike can burn it up or a flood can wash it away. Are there thousands of tankers anchored offshore somewhere hiding all this oil?
No. This "theory" that the scarcity of oil is somehow a tactic to drive up prices is ludicris. As someone in the industry, who sees first hand what is going on, I can tell you 1000% that that is NOT the case.

Anyone who knows anything about the industry can figure that out. There just simply isn't any way to pump out that much oil and not sale it or use it. There is no where except underground to store it. If that were true then they would be doing everything possible to stifle exploration and production, not drilling at a breakneck pace all over the world.

Sorry, but there is no conspiracy, we have wasted and gorged ourselves on a non-renewable resource for decades and now the time to pay the piper is fast approaching. If we want to place blame we need only look in the mirror.