So It's Better to Leave the City on a Bike than Stay in Your Stocked City Home During TEOTWAWKI?

The difference between the NFL and SHTF is in the NFL both sides have to play by the same rules, both sides know what the rules are, both sides have the same number of players, no advantages.

Now think if one team only had the leagal number of players on the field. Then the other team shows up, puts 5 more players on the field, they have base ball bats, bear pepper spray and brass knuckles, plus 2 of them are on dirt bikes and one of the guys has a German shepherd.
The ref doesn't call a penalty because he died of dehydration and exposure a week last week.

 

I wish I were that much of an optimist about people.Regardless of your preps most of your neighbors will be out of food in 3-4 days. Hungry people will do whatever it takes to feed themselves and their children. For a while you could escape detection IF you don't give off any signs that you have food like garbage or food smells. Even too many toilet flushes would attract unwanted attention after a certain amount of time. Within a few days, a week at best they will be knocking on your door. The first few times will be polite, but soon it won't be. You won't just have the established gangs to deal with, but the new ones that will pop up as people without resources band together.

My numbers game says 3 days food on hand plus 3 days stocked in grocery stores = starving people that will do whatever it takes within 9 days.The size of the urban area doesn't matter; it's just the same pattern repeated in parallel more times than a small one.

 

Moto...you know the respect I have for you, but there a few things here that just make my brain itch. It seems to presume that there is but one gang in any given metro area and that the gang mentality are the only ones out there with whom one will have to deal. Good people who are unprepared will (IMO) be the bigger problem in the early times. The fact that someone did not have the foresight to prepare for serious societal upheavals doesn't lessen their will to survive when they happen...nor does it lessen their determination to feed their children and other loved ones. Your friendly neighbor...even the liberal snowflake once they realize that Daddy.gov is not going to be there will become a predator. It will not be a matter of gangs looking for people as much as starving people with starving loved ones looking at their neighbors as either sources of food or food itself.

EDIT: 3M's post was posted while I wrote this or I would probably have let the dog sleep

 

Well, here is a question for you. All your supplies are in your residence. You are at work and you took the public bus that day because when you looked at the traffic report the 405 and 110 were at a standstill because of numerous police chases.

While at work, there is a small earthquake, some gas lines in the neighborhood severed, there is a fire, the entire complex burns down and falls into the underground parking structure. You've lost all your supplies, your car and your bike.

Then as you are trying to figure out what you are going to do next, a big earthquake hits all hell breaks loose. The SHTF has started now.

Moral of the story is, don't keep all your eggs in one basket unless you are willing to lose all of them. Get a storage unit or 2 if you can afford, OR develop a network of friends and store some stuff at each of their locations and return the favor for them by storing some of their stuff.

If you are thinking that you can survive a disaster by your own wits and without support from others, well, I'm sorry but you might not even make it to the outer loop of the freeway before the stray dogs are gnawing on your remains.

In other words: get out of the big city, make a network of like minded people, develop a caching strategy, develop an emergency/evacuation plan with your network. Practice the plan because it may only be 10 miles it may seem like it's maybe 4 hrs .. but it may be days if you have to skirt around downed bridges, full storm aqueducts and a bunch of mad zombie bikers.

If you have only two options, stay in the apartment fully stocked for a year in the big city or make a run for the hills on a bike without a plan. Well the outcome is going to be about the same.

Just my 2

 

There was a time i wanted to run off into the woods if SHTF....
Reality took a couple years to really set in...i've only been trying to think like a prepper for the last 5 or so years....i figured i could farm enough - nope. I figured i could fish/hunt enough - kinda/sorta/but not really if there were MANY others doing the same in my AO. One of the things i know FOR SURE is that if SHTF while i'm at my office in metro Vancouver - i'm OUTTA THERE ASAP. If i didn't drive that day it would be transit until it broke down and walk the rail tracks the rest of the way home. It's a 50km walk but with a couple water bottles and clear tracks i could do it quick enough under pressure even in poor health. If it hits the fan while i'm at home - we're in 'ok' shape to defend ourselves and a rally point for "friends of the family".

The very LAST place i want to be is a place where crowds can gather.

 

Develop some friendships with folks that are like minded, and out of town.
As things heat up in many scenarios, signs of the times can dictate moving more of your stuff to a safer location, with reliable friends.
Make you self a real honest list of your skills and assets ,what you have to offer a group, in a world without power for an indefinite length of time. Mechanics, medicine, horticulture , security, reliability, strength endurance , rope work , handy work .
Encourage your self to take classes to sharpen your skills in as many areas as you can .
Now days this is more possible than It was for those my age ,so it's up to you .
Because if a your worth is only the food you've stored than what do you have left to offer others will need, post SHTF.when the food runs out. ?

 

Now wait a second! NFL coaches - all professional coaches now - use play card based on mathematic probability of the outcome for which they have a huge data set, years and years of data, in databases (batting avg, bases stolen, first downs in different conditions, etc.). Or, they have very experience individuals sitting around a table and thinking out the best solutions if x = a and y = b and taken into account what they can drag from the databases (pass completions, field goal completions, etc.) Should you be serious about this then you would have to create your own database from scratch because I don't think any type of thing exists and/or come up with your own solution set for triggers (airport closure + port closure = secure in place, airport closure + port closure + no electricity = Bugout, etc.).

And, for goodness sakes change your forum name. There are lots of LEOs and retired LEOs on the forum so I am sure they caught it but I didn't until now. It's not even funny. The Admin guys can help you change it.

 

Bingo! Traffic is an issue. Everyone will want to get out. The majority of the responses on this thread were immediately to get out. This is what a mass exit looks like-


Eventually these people leaving will run out of gas. So all these folks having no where to go will be stuck out there. The OP knows his area. Most of us know the surrounding area around our homes. We know it well and this is our advantage. Going off, away from the city to nowhere because you have no where to go like the rest of the people is just one of the crowd. Ready to be a victim because thieves and gangs will prey on the people who are stuck along side the highway.

 

Years supply of food and water in the spare bedroom of your apartment $7000
Shotgun to defend it all $700
Ability to hide a years worth of poop in an apartment complex........priceless!

 

I think the best plan is to not be in the inner city when SHTF shows up.
One should be if at all possible working outside of the ring road, and at a minimum living outside of it.
that way one would have a jump on the mass exodus by not being part of it.

Best bet would be to live rural, telecommute from the BOL/Compound and never have to enter the big city.

 

Or @ED GEiN at least change your avatar to or similar....might as well be consistent
Ed Gein - Wikipedia

 

I believe there are people that are in similar circumstances who will survive. They have devised plans over time to be able to deal with whatever scenario plays out. Survival is a mental game and the solutions to problems have to be custom tailored to you and your environment, your brain is your most valuable survival tool.

I lived in a city of 6 million for over 40 years, always felt one step ahead of everybody else, and had many different plans to deal with any crisis that might appear. I'm now in a rural location adjacent to a large forested area, my plans have changed to adapt to my new environment, but I still plan, and still feel ahead of those around me.

Survival in an area of dense population is complex, with many variables to contend with. Traditionally many people in cities head into rural areas during SHTF crisis events, and for many of them that flight from the city has cost them everything.

Just out of curiosity is your bike a motorcycle or bicycle?

 

Ed Gein - Full body shiver

 

Geez Chello, sometimes you go too damn far. LOL!!! Yes, shivers. BIG SHIVERS! LOL!!! I swear that guy looks like an Nazi concentration camp guard...and he probably would have made a darn good one.

 

I was thinking Buffalo Bill for some reason?

 

Yeah that is so true and is part of the problem for me. Only solution is, hoping people in other Houses die out and you can move into them as needed. Thats kind of why I was looking for timetables like when the water supply/toilets stop running. I think your food/water price is way to high. As I posted earlier, stuff like spaghetti/pasta, other dried goods and bottled water isn't that expensive.If I had the money, I would have a second home no matter how small outside the City, fully stocked and go there even if by bicycle or walking. Unfortunately I don't.

Agreed its infinite but having a "play list" on some scenarios is better than having no playlist and winging it.

That's what perplexes me. Why is it so hard or annoying then to simply ignore a "Hypothetical" post? I don't consider open ended questions, trolling. As far as Ed Gein, 10 points to you for recognizing him, but Jesus some people need to lighten up and have a sense of humor, You can still have a sense of humor and still be interested in surviving.

Sorry you feel that way

 

So really you are not looking for advice. You are looking for confirmation that you are doing the right thing and will be OK no matter what situation arises. Prep enough so that you feel safe. Don't look for confirmation of your ideas in an internet forum. You will probably not get them. All of us prep in different ways. We all have different skill sets, experiences, living conditions and economic status. If you feel you can survive in a city then good for you. A lot of us do not feel safe living in that type of situation. There is no step by step instruction manual for how to deal with all situations. I suggest browsing the survival reading room and read up on topics you find interesting. There are urban prepper sites at might have some good information for you too.

 

LOL! so my playing devils advocate is working..... PS- I truly believe that some could survive in the city. The odds could be in your favor. I will not stop being optimistic that there is a chance of survival in a SHTF event while living in the city. It is a small chance of survival but it is realistic.

My question is, how many of you that live out in the sticks welcome new friends and will open your doors to city folks? How many of you plan to hunker down and close the gates? I can only think of one monkey on here that has said they are planning on around 30 bugging out to their location. If anyone wants to be my friend and welcome me and my family into your remote location, please PM me. Otherwise we are on our own.

 

You are putting words into my mouth, nothing personal. I welcome advice and if I feel its useful to me then I'll follow that advice if possible. I never said I could survive in the City during TEOTWAWKI or when the entire US is under SHTF conditions but I prefer to live in the City as I have my entire life than living outside the City as the entire United States has never been in SHTF conditions. In the event that something does happen I at least want to make the best effort I can to survive. Obviously if I had the money I would have a second home outside of the City to escape in but unfortunately I don't. Getting a group together is easier said than done. The people in my circles, white urban professionals, are simply not interested in discussing SHTF/End of the World, and I personally feel uncomfortable with many "live off the land people".

 

Why would you say that? Where does it say that preppers and people that want to have a fighting chance have to live in rural areas and be a certain type? I am not like you, you are not like me. We are all different and we each are taking different things from the site. At this time in my life I have children to support. I am not going to go live in the sticks on welfare because it is the safe thing to do. Tully just had a thread about SHTF. There are different levels of what one would consider a breakdown. Ed is generating conversation, I happen to have relocated into a metro area. I come here to learn, the more I learn the better chance of survival. Should I pack up my stuff and leave because I refuse to relocate into the country right now in case something happens? I will say it again............. remember Y2K. Some bet the farm that S was going to HTF. It didn't. People quit jobs, bought stuff they could not afford and doom never happened. I want to have a fighting chance to survive everyday, to know what to do in a small incident or a big one.