Venezuela- The Collapse

China did pretty well with our jobs.

 

What is happening in Venezuela is a good preview of our own likely fate.. SHTF based on some sudden collapse is the prepper's wet dream because the rules go out the window and there is the perception that we can remain free and rebuild some ideologically/morally restored world that our forefather's intended. Like Venezuela . this slow decay into totalitarian ruin that we've been experiencing ourselves for the last 30 years or more is a death of a thousand cuts and sucks compared to a nice EMP or other overnight collapse into anarchy.

 

I can't consider an overnight collapse into anarchy any more preferable to a slow decline. The sudden collapse affects everyone simultaneously, and it will be pretty much a come as you are, hard scrabble affair....the slow decline allows for people to at least make some preparations for the coming hard times, and a somewhat softer succession of graduated shocks to sort the survivors from the non adaptive extinct to be.

 

That's because you are thinking practically and not romanticizing the notion of the big-event type of collapse, as I have noticed a lot of preppers and wannabe preppers seem to do.

 

It's not often that we agree, chimo, but happily, on this occasion, I am glad that we are.

I'm not saying that a big-event type collapse is not feasible, even in our own lifetime. A runaway pandemic similar to, or more severe than the Spanish Flu pandemic in the early 20th Century, an uncontrolled escalating thermo-nuclear war, or an event of similar proportions are not beyond the realms of impossibility. A massive die out of humanity is nothing to look forward to, even if reasonably prepared for most smaller, localised catastrophes that are more likely actually occur.

The Roman civilisation did not collapse simultaneously and universally, bits of it survived the barbarian invasions in the Western part of the Roman empire, while the Eastern part of Roman empire lasted well into the 13th century CE.

For myself, I prep for the credible contingencies that I and mine might be faced with over the next 10-20 years. beyond that, that is an exercise that will be for my descendants to take up after I am gone. If I have done my job well, they will be well provided for, and well indoctrinated in the prepper way of life, and hopefully not practitioners of it as a matter of necessity.

 

We agree as often as we don't.

The problem with the slow collapse into totalitarian ruin is that prepping becomes more difficult...even a crime. You may not be able to leave anything but knowledge to your descendants...everything else could be banned or confiscated by the State. Even your knowledge may be diluted or contradicted by State education and propaganda.

The difference between us and the Romans is the availability of technologies that enable control over the people that our forebears couldn't even dream about.

Also, in days past humans always had places they could escape to...those places are almost non-existent these days.

 

A well considered reply...

Emigration may be an option, even if as a Syrian like refugee. As bad as a place may be, there is nearly always some place that is comparatively better. Diasporas are also part of human history, where folk are prepared to accept the risks and uncertainty of being a refugee to a comparatively less worse place than from whence they left. Often the art of it is in the timing and preparation for departure, as some found when they were rounded up and herded to concentration camps by the Gestapo.

 

Headlining from Venezuela today. The slow bleed continues.

Venezuelan troops going hungry, steal goats to feed themselves

Venezuela should be rich. Instead it’s becoming a failed state.

720 percent inflation! What would that make a loaf of bread? A gallon of gas?

 

Heartbreaking - I sure wish this would get a lot more airtime instead of occasional blips. It deserves a lot more attention than Kardashian boobs, butts, and wardrobe failures.

 

I believe those that romanticize it really have no clue. They probably own all the latest and greatest but would be the first to go into a melt down if they had to use it.

This slow strangling of Venezuela is awful because I can honestly see this happening it here. Currently they are debating in DC about bailing out Puerto Rico. That country has been struggling for years. Their interest payment now has gone unpaid and their hand is now out. But to give money without fixing the issue does not seem wise to me.

 

Money spent on rehab may be justified: Money spent on maintaining the habit, probably isn't.

Throwing more money at the hole that the problem creates, won't solve the problem....changing the way that money is managed by Puerto Rico, may perhaps have a better chance of solving the problem.

 

And it keeps getting worse

Catastrophe Is the New Normal for Venezuelans

"Making sense of the rolling political and economic disaster in Venezuela isn't easy. But the bigger mystery may be why the whole country isn't flooding into the streets to demand the end of the social revolution that's left one of Latin America's most resource-rich nations in a shambles.

Start with the riddle of why the country with the world's largest crude oil reserves has suffered constant power outages. (Spoiler: instead of using oil to generate electricity, the government has relied on hydropower while failing to plan for this year's punishing drought; it neglected to build new power plants or invest in its crumbling infrastructure.)

And how has President Nicolas Maduro responded to the energy crisis? He cut the work week for public servants to two days. Along with the furlough, Maduro -- who also is presiding over the world's worst recession -- ordered a 30 percent hike in the national minimum wage. Just how much the crowd-pleasing bonus will matter in a country with high triple-digit inflation, where consumers queueing for hours can't find eight out of 10 staple goods at grocery stores, is debatable. Not to mention that Venezuela is literally running out of bank notes.
..."​

 

This is what hunger looks like. Imagine- our country sees riots over political candidates. Imagine what cut benefits and hunger in the inner city would look like.



This is a real sobering article written by the NY Times on the medical system or lack of. In a collapse there are no real services. Power outages, medicine unavailable and medical equipment is being stolen and sold on the black market.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/16/w...inside-venezuelas-failing-hospitals.html?_r=0

 

@BTPost they are humans. I am sure many would say the same about us if this was America instead of Venezuela.

 

I hope Chavez and those who continue his madness roast in Hell. People are fundamentally the same no matter the race or origin. Culture, a learned thing, being the only difference and something that can be unlearned.

How about we trade all the Americans who told us about how great Chavez was for Venezuela with some of those who would be grateful for a chance to start over here? Pretty much a win-win for everybody, except there would be fewer Hollywood movies and trashy music videos for a while.

 

The people are trying to do something but the politicians are making things difficult.

Venezuela's President Maduro 'won't face recall referendum' - BBC News

 

The greed flows to the Farmers as well and many chose to produce Cane instead of food crops.
HK

Some 800,000 tons of sugar cane at risk of loss in Venezuela
President of the Sugar Cane Farmers Associations Federation (Fesoca) José Ricardo Álvarez said an emergency plan needs to be implemented to save part of the sugar cane crops in the country


Fitful sugar production has brought about serious problems in the sector (File photo)
EL UNIVERSAL
Monday January 18, 2016 03:26 PM
President of the Sugar Cane Farmers Associations Federation (Fesoca) José Ricardo Álvarez on Tuesday described as "very serious" the current situation of sugar production in Venezuela, and described the situation as unprecedented.

Álvarez said that the sector is concerned over the fact that the grinding of at least 800,000 tons of sugar cane is lagging behind. Therefore, he said an emergency plan needs to be implemented to save part of the sugar cane crops in the country.

"The main issue is the lack of spare parts for machinery; we need batteries, tires, and spare parts. We are familiar with the country's necessity to resolve this situation in one way or another. We are doing our best, yet it (this situation) sometimes gets out of control," Fesoca's head stressed in an interview with Radio station Unión Radio.

And it is a greed grab bag for all see below.
HK

Sugar-Cane Fuel Wins in Brazil as Cheap Ethanol Beats Gasoline
Gerson Freitas Jr
February 29, 2016 — 9:00 PM CST Updated on March 1, 2016 — 11:36 AM CST
Share on FacebookShare on Twitter


Sugar cane is harvested in Valparaiso, Brazil. Traditionally, drivers choose ethanol to fuel their cars when it’s below 70 percent of the price of gasoline, as the biofuel extracted from sugar cane yields about 30 percent less energy per liter.

Photographer: Paulo Fridman/Bloomberg
Facebook Twitter Instagram YouTube

Recommended
Berkshire’s $1 Billion Apple Bet Suggests Faith in Product Pipeline
Germany Just Got Almost All of Its Power From Renewable Energy
Kingsman Cuts Sugar Deficit Forecast by 29% on Giant Brazil Crop
First Voyage for World's Biggest Cruise Ship

• Consumers have been choosing cheaper ethanol over gasoline
• Prices surge to a record high as inventories decline

Share on FacebookShare on Twitter
Share on LinkedInShare on RedditShare on Google+E-mail
Brazil’s economic and political crises are proving to be a boon to one of the nation’s most embattled sectors: ethanol producers.

Drivers, who used to switch between ethanol and gas depending on the price gap, are now just going for the cheaper, less-efficient ethanol as they try to cut short-term spending amid a battle with inflation as high as 10.7 percent, rising unemployment and an economy contracting at the fastest pace in a century. That’s helping keep ethanol prices at a record high for more than three months.


"The idea that consumers would migrate back to gas just isn’t happening," said Martinho Ono, chief executive officer at ethanol broker SCA Etanol do Brasil. "It’s the same thinking as the person who goes to the supermarket and picks the cheaper brand. In a difficult situation like the one we’re in today, that perception of the economy ends up trumping rational thinking."

Traditionally, drivers choose ethanol to fuel their cars when it’s below 70 percent of the price of gasoline, as the biofuel extracted from sugar cane yields about 30 percent less energy per liter. Now, the difference at the pump -- it costs about 1 real ($0.25) less per liter to fuel with ethanol at current prices -- is prevailing. Ethanol was consistently sold at 72 to 75 percent of the price of gasoline from November to January, up from 66 percent a year earlier, data from the National Oil Agency show.


"Ethanol continues to get consumers’ preference," Mirian Bacchi and Ivelise Bragato, analysts at University of Sao Paulo’s Cepea, an agriculture research center, said in a report on Feb. 22. While the income restriction is an explanation, it’s also possible that part of drivers "considers that the biofuel is still competitive above the 70 percent mark," they said.

Ethanol Sales
Sales of hydrous ethanol by fuel distributors in the last three months rose 10 percent from a year earlier, while sales of gasoline shrank 9.3 percent. Over the past 12 months, ethanol sales climbed 36 percent to a record 17.8 billion liters as the biofuel became a more attractive option following a rise in gasoline taxes a year ago. Ethanol fell to as low as 60 percent of the gasoline price during the production peak in August, a move that led consumers to wipe out the nation’s inventories.

Plinio Nastari, the president of consulting firm Datagro, expects hydrous ethanol inventories at the end of the current 2015-16 crop year will be about 300 million liters, down from 1.2 billion liters a year earlier, as consumption remains "surprisingly resilient."


A truck is loaded with sugar in a warehouse. Sales of hydrous ethanol by fuel distributors in the last three months rose 10 percent from a year earlier, while sales of gasoline shrank 9.3 percent.
Photographer: Paulo Fridman/Bloomberg
The record demand has been helping sugar and ethanol producers recover from years of poor results. With an 85 percent increase in ethanol sales, Biosev SA, Louis Dreyfus Commodities Holdings’s sugar unit and Brazil’s second-largest producer, posted a net profit in the three months ended in December after eight consecutive quarterly losses. Biofuel sales from competitor Sao Martinho SA more than doubled in the same quarter, boosting net income to a record for the period.

Analyst Forecasts
That has helped push Sao Martinho’s shares up 36 percent over the past year, compared to a 16 percent drop in Brazil’s benchmark stock gauge. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg are expecting net adjusted income to rise by 48 percent next fiscal year following a 13 percent increase in the year ending March 31. Biosev is up 16 percent, with analysts expecting the company to get its first annual profit since 2011 next year.

Transport fuel demand is likely to decline with the consensus lowering of Brazil’s 2016 GDP outlook, but analysts say they expect the sugar and ethanol industry to outperform all other sectors.

Hydrous ethanol output is projected to increase 4.5 percent to 17.6 billion liters in the season starting in April amid higher sugar-cane supplies, and sugar mills are expecting crushing to start in March in order to take advantage of record prices before production peaks, says Bruno Lima, an analyst at INTL FCStone in Campinas. While current demand levels are a positive sign, the persistent slowdown in the Brazilian economy may eventually curb biofuel consumption, he said.

"The question mark is if consumers will continue to demand more ethanol instead of the more expensive gasoline or if the crisis will lead to a general drop in fuel consumption," Lima said.

 

Venezuela doesn't even make the top 35 failed states. It's bad, but impaired to most of Africa, it's as paradise.

My FIL never bothered with food storage. His time in the PTO and later, Occupied Japan showed him one thing.

If you 'good neighbors" didn't steal your 'extra' food, the local Govt would come along and take it at gunpoint - as 'taxes'.

Bad times ahead, that's for sure. Just when they might wash ashore is the question.