I’d like to pose a question (partly as research for my ongoing project). The basic scenario is simple. A version of smallpox has gotten loose in the <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">United States</st1lace></st1:country-region> and has spread to most major metropolitan centres. The government has declared a state of emergency and clamped down hard on traffic all over the country. The airlines and railroads have been shut down, the military is blocking all ways out of the cities and – basically – the population is being advised to stay indoors and avoid contact with outsiders as long as possible. There is a vaccine for the disease, but there are only a relatively few doses available and concentrated on the emergency services and the military. There is a reasonably well-founded suspicion that the rich and well-connected are receiving preferential treatment ahead of the rest of the population. <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /> The food is running out in most of the cities. The question I want to ask is what is likely to happen then? Violence and uprisings, or what? Where would be the hotspots? Any sort of thought would be useful. Thanks Chris
There was an outburst of small pox in Kosovo in 1974. A Muslim brought it back from pilgrimage in Mecca. It is EXTREMELY contagious and if not vaccinated VERY lethal. Since nowhere in the First or Second World countries small pox is obligatory or regular vaccination, death toll could be unimaginable. In Kosovo there was no uprising, riots or violence...The death toll is unknown, but entire villages were torched to the ground, most of them with their dead inhabitants. Highly specialized army medical crews worked on defeating the disease for a month. Small pox has expiry date...21 days. If in 21 days there's no new sick people, chances are huge that it's over... The death from small pox is extremely nasty, and those that are stupid enough to get in contact with other people when rioting or looting, will have a very nasty surprise. If I was in a situation like that, I would barricade home for 30 days, no contacts with anyone, until it's over.... There's one "good" thing...the person that was sick as a child from Morbilli (don't know English name...lighter pox), has 10 times better chances of surviving Variola...
There are some vaccines that I think are dangerous not to take. This is one of them. The benefit, IMO, outweighs the cons.
When that pox hit Kosovo, ALL children in Yugoslavia were vaccinated, and it was regular vaccine for the next 2-3 years...I was vaccinated too...Two days after the shot, a black pustules and high fever appeared. That lasted 2 days and I was fine...At that time, from that vaccine, my reaction was among worst recorded...No deaths or permanent damage was recorded then. With todays new vaccines, I just don't know...
